Adam Dunn..... Just got to thinking

[David From Cincy]

With A-Rod hitting #500 at 32 years 28 days old it got me to thinking, where wwill Adam Dunn be at the age of 32...
Well He is 27 and currently has 228 homeruns averaging 40 homers per season. If you see where I am going with this at 32 he should have somewhere around 438 homeruns. at 37 he could easily have 638.... Dunn could potentially crack 700 in his career. I know a lot of people dislike Dunn and think he should have been traded, but IMO this offseason the Reds need to try to give Dunn the 5 year 75 million dollar deal he is projected at and begin grooming him for first base. Not these half assed attempts that they have tried in the past, a true "you are playing first so start learning the possition" grooming. either that or trade Griffey and put Bruce in cnter and Hamilton in right.
I have heard a lot of negative comments about Joey Votto several from people close to the organization and some minor league announcers so it may be best to prepare for a Brandon Larson situation.
I have always said that if Dunn could hit .260-.275 then he could become the elite hitter that you need on a club, and as of right now he is hitting .262. Dunn could end up with over 700 homeruns before his career is over, heck if he played until 43 like Bonds right now he could possibly hit 878 homeruns and that would be just with 40 a year, no "career years".
I know this is a lot of guessing and that injuries could easily happen much like what happened to Jr. but Jr even only had 189 homeruns in his first 7 years, Dunn is nearly 50 homeruns ahead of that pace.
Once again I am not saying this WILL happen, I am just saying that all the Dunn bashers out there need to realize just what he is and what he can be. Dunn is a draw, if the Reds plan to contend they can't build around Jr. because of his age and they have no other real proven offensive threatto build a lineup around besides Dunn. If you get rid of Dunn then you have to hope Jr. plays AT LEAST another 4-5 years into his 40's just to keep a proven bat and draw around. If the Reds lose both of these players, which many wanted at the trading deadline, just think about what it would do to this offense, over 1/3 of the teams homeruns would be gone as would about 1/3 of the RBIs. Who comes in and fills those holes? Who is going to put people in the seats when you are trying to rebuild a contending team?
I say the best bet is to sign Dunn and move Griffey this offseason. Jr. will have hit his 600th career HR hopefully and so it will most likely be at least 3 more years of playing before he would hit 700 and who knows how much he has left in the tank.

[Big Dog Daddy]

I have always been a HUGE fan of Adam Dunn! I have heard alot of negative comments about Dunn. Some I have agreed with & many of them I strongly disagree with.
In all respect, I believe we have a major SUPERSTAR in the making in Cincinnati. If he stays healthy, You know he is going to hit at least 40 HR's & have around 100 RBI's each year. Most teams would kill to have a star like this on their team.
I also like the idea of grooming Dunn as the future first baseman of the Reds. I wonder where I heard that before? Hmmmm....... The Reds really need to work hard with Dunn in getting him ready to be a first baseman.
Thank goodness Dunn is still in Cincinnati!!! I hope the owners, manager, etc., realize that we need to keep Adam here.
I also would love to see the Reds keep Griffey. But, in order to get some good pitchers here I think the team will need to offer him to get some good pitching. I think the Reds need to build a good team around Dunn.
Now if I had a few million laying around, I could really straighten this team out. HaHaHa!
Randy

[Broken1]

Statistics are fine, and his home run totals would definitely be "sexy". How much do they impact the team though? How much would they?
Looking at the numbers that have been thrown out there you would believe that a future hall of famer is amongst us. Yet so many want to see his exit. Why is that?
Dunn is a player who throughout his career has not hit in the clutch. He hasn't hit with runners in scoring position. He has been a horrid fielder, with no signs of improvement. As well on more than one occasion his hustle has been called into question.
A player with those faults is not worth the money being thrown his way. He has an option for 13 million for next year. I say give him the 13 million next year and then let him bolt after that. By that time we should have at least one prospect ready to fill his spot as well as 13 million dollars to play with what might be the best crop of free agent pitchers we see in the next 5-10 years.

[David From Cincy]

Statistics are fine, and his home run totals would definitely be "sexy". How much do they impact the team though? How much would they?
Looking at the numbers that have been thrown out there you would believe that a future hall of famer is amongst us. Yet so many want to see his exit. Why is that?
Dunn is a player who throughout his career has not hit in the clutch. He hasn't hit with runners in scoring position. He has been a horrid fielder, with no signs of improvement. As well on more than one occasion his hustle has been called into question.
A player with those faults is not worth the money being thrown his way. He has an option for 13 million for next year. I say give him the 13 million next year and then let him bolt after that. By that time we should have at least one prospect ready to fill his spot as well as 13 million dollars to play with what might be the best crop of free agent pitchers we see in the next 5-10 years.




First off, clutch.... I can think of many times where Dunn has come through in the CLUTCH, not just RISP. In fact just last night he hit a game winning 2 run homer in extras.
Hustle? Take a look at this team, Freel hustles and it ends there. I am sorry but players are products of there team, if the team in general hustles then players will catch on. Believe me, team mentality is huge and this teams is still crappy. Here are a few players on this team that do not hustle: E.E, Josh Hamilton, Jr., Dunn, Gonz, Hatt, Valentin and those are out of a possible 13 possition players on this team. Do you see a problem that goes deeper than one player? This is a team mentality that has been allowed to grow over the last 6 or 7 years and it is why we will be going out to get a new manager and probably a new GM this offseason. I think Dunn wasn't traded for a reason, I believe there is going to be big changes next season and that decision was to be left to those coming in.
Let's face it, this team is going to take more than a season or two to become competetive without spending huge dollars and so you need someone to keep people filling the seats during losing seasons, Dunn does just that. who is going to pay money to see a rebuilding team with a lineup of Freel, Hamilton, Bruce, Votto, Gonz, EE, Phillips and Ross? You will be lucky to get 120 HR's all season and you only have one player who has been somewhat consistant in Phillips. Believe me, the Reds know this and they know they need someone in the lineup to spark attendance and Jr. isn't the "long term" guy.
Dunn deserves 15 million a year based on RBIs(which are impressive when you think about how many times he is up with no one on because we have very few players in front of him that can work walks or have high OBP), HRs, runs scored, and his threat in the lineup. Remember, Dunn is performing at this level with basically no one to protect him and in our lineup he has a lot more pressure than he would in any of the teams in playoff contention. Look at teams fighting for the playoffs this year and then look at our lineup, you can see several reasons why we aren't in any race. On a decent team Dunn would consistantly hit between .265-.280, on this team it is a much more difficult task. Heck look at these averages on this team:
Phillips .276
Dunn: .262
Jr. : .271
EE: .263
Gonz: .258
Hatt: .306
Freel: .245
Ross: .204
Hamilton: .279
UMMMMM..... 1 player over .300 and no one else even CLOSE..... 1, and he is just a bad week away from the .200's as well.
Now lets look at a playoff contender in our own division:
A Soriano: .296
Lee: .327
Ramirez: .318
Theriot: .281
Derosa: .290
Jones: .252
Floyd: .290
Fontenot: .308
Pagan: .273
Just compare those two teams and tell me Dunn's hitting would DRASTICALLY improve if he had protection like that in Cincy. Heck he would have 100 RBI at this point most likely. You cannot look at Dunn's numbers and say "that is the best he can do" IMO, simply because if you put a player on a team where no one can hit, his numbers are going to suffer greatly.
But in the end it is just my opinion.

Also, there is no way you can predict this to be the best free agent pitcher group for the next 5-10 years. You are projection way too far into the future. If you want to know the truth, If the Reds got rid of Dunn almost none of that money would ever go to a new pitcher. Remember, next year the following salaries are in for a boost: Phillips (it will be a big jump), Harang, Arroyo, arbitration players and of course a few of our bullpen members contracts jump next season. Dunn's salary would just disapear into the current pool of players and we would basically be left with some of Milton's salary to play with.
The bottom line is the Reds are going to have a hard time competing at their current team salary. Big C is going to have to throw some money into the pool this offseason if he really does want to compete because 75 million just isn't going to cut it.

[Broken1]

You could make the same "better players around him" excuse for every single player on this team. What does that say? It tells me that there is an overall lack of talent up and down this roster. As you yourself has said. So, how do you make that better? Not by giving one player 1/5 of the entire payroll.

[David From Cincy]

You could make the same "better players around him" excuse for every single player on this team. What does that say? It tells me that there is an overall lack of talent up and down this roster. As you yourself has said. So, how do you make that better? Not by giving one player 1/5 of the entire payroll.



No you can't make the same argument about every player on the roster, you can make it for 3 and 3 alone; Phillips, Griffey and Dunn. Why? Because they are the only three that are competing at a major league level consistantly. All three have hit for power, decent average and have driven in runs... all consistantly which shows that their ceiling is higher than every other starter on this team. The same goes for pitchers, with more run support Harang and Arroyo would both have 10-15 wins to maybe 3 losses, but Milton would still be average as would have been Lohse. My point is ceilings, what they can achieve with supports.
EE has a nice ceiling right now because he is young, (2 more seasons of swinging at balls bouncing 3 feet in front of the plate ten times more that he gets a hit and he will be similar to the Larson mold), besides that we have "faith" in Hamilton not being a fluke, even though his average had steadily declined up until his injury. We think Freel should stay for his hustle, though he has no power, doesn't hit for average and doesn't drive in runs. Gonz, he doesn't hit or field consistantly. Hatt is gone after this year. Ross.... what a mess.
Simply put, you can't say that about every player, because every player isn't driving in over 100 runs, scoring over 100 and hitting 40 homeruns, most players in MLB would give their right arm for that kind of production. Strike outs are highly overrated, if you look at the impact a strike out has in comparison to making any other out you would see it has a very small effect on rallies and run scoring. But here in Cincinnati all people try to do is try to find scapegoats, one year it's Griffey or Narron or Obrien or Miley or (insert name here) of anyone associated with the team during a time of losing.
You say you can't give 1/5 of your team salary to 1 player? well Dunn is only making 1/7 the teams salary... and surprise surprise.... so is Milton. Milton is off the books this coming offseason and there is talk of big C throwing more money onto this payroll. You can have a player making that kind of money and succeed, The Brewers have a starting pitcher making over 1/7 of the teams salary followed by many player in the 7 million range, The Twins did it too. The Padres have a team salary of 58 million and have Maddux making 10, Giles making 10, Hoffman and Cameron both making 7. Oakland has a payroll of 79 million and have 4 players making between 8-10 million. It can be done, you just can't sign loser bullpen pitchers to 2-3 million dollar deals much like Stanton and you can't have idiotic salaries like Milton's at over 10 million per season, almost as much as the Twins' Santana makes.
You argue that you can't pay one player that much of the salary, well almost every team in the majors does.

[hacker]

Anyone who wants to look to the future and paint Dunn as a HOFer, must address just how the guy will continue to play LF at 300 lbs. At 27-28, he has put on about 40 lbs over the past 5 yrs. That is not normal. The guy has fun swinging for the fences but I don't believe that he takes his profession serious to the point of doing all he can to get better and stay in shape. He has already made it clear, quite selfishly, that he just "doesn't feel comfortable" at 1B, after a spring of being tried there. Who is going to want that lardass patrolling their OF when his body actually matures the way all guys do in their 30's. He WILL BE be a 300 lb player. I hope it's elsewhere.

[David From Cincy]

Anyone who wants to look to the future and paint Dunn as a HOFer, must address just how the guy will continue to play LF at 300 lbs. At 27-28, he has put on about 40 lbs over the past 5 yrs. That is not normal. The guy has fun swinging for the fences but I don't believe that he takes his profession serious to the point of doing all he can to get better and stay in shape. He has already made it clear, quite selfishly, that he just "doesn't feel comfortable" at 1B, after a spring of being tried there. Who is going to want that lardass patrolling their OF when his body actually matures the way all guys do in their 30's. He WILL BE be a 300 lb player. I hope it's elsewhere.
You honestly think 25 more pounds will change anything? Seriously? Will his range shrink? he is 6'6" - 6'-7" and 270 and honestly, as much as people want to complain, still isn't our worst every day defensive player and isn't even the heaviest, Harang holds that record(being fat as a pitcher can be detrimental as well). Dunn has 4 errors this season, 4. Gonz has 15.....15. EE has 11 and Jr. has 7. People want to make Dunn out to be horrible in the field, but in all honesty this season he has shown that with a CF who has range he can be okay in left. The absolute last thing I worry about is a players weight, that is one of the easier problems to correct.
And what about Jr. do you honestly think he is in the best shape he could be? Harang? Ross? Look up and down this roster and you will see a hand full of players "in shape", to me that points to a much bigger problem than an individual player. This team needs dicipline from the top down, players, managers, coaches, everyone. The last 6 or 7 years the Reds have had more out of shampe players that almost any team I can think of, that is a serious issue, but something that can easily be corrected.

[Broken1]

If you give Adam Dunn 15 million dollars at the current 70 million that we spend on payroll...that would equal out to the 1/5 that I was referring to.
And as far as teams being able to do it and have success...Milwaukee is doing their business thanks to players like Fielder, Braun, Hardy, and Hart. Players who make next to nothing. Cincinnati doesn't have those young players they can get big time production out of while paying them next to nothing. Which means that they have to spend their money much more wisely. As for your other teams you threw out there...3 of Minnesota's best hitters make combined what Adam Dunn is making. The same is true of the Padres. And as far as the A's, their hitting is horrid all the way around. And they aren't much better wins and losses wise then we are.
As for Dunn. I don't deny what he is. He'll hit .250, get you 100 rbi's, 100 walks, 100 runs, 40 homers, and 150+ strikeouts. Good numbers, no doubt. He's not the player I would hitch my franchise to though. This teams needs an infusion of talent. Major league talent. To do that we need to be economically sound and the money has to come from somewhere.
Also...on a side note...Bronson Arroyo wouldn't be anywhere near the 10-15 wins that you said. So far this year he has given up 6 runs on 8 hits to Chicago, 6 runs on 6 hits to Washington, 6 runs on 7 hits to Pittsburgh, 8 runs on 11 hits to Houston, 6 runs on 9 hits to St. Louis, 7 runs on 8 hits to Texas, and in his last outing 7 runs on 7 hits in an inning and and two thirds to Washington. It's safe to say that he has been a major disappointment this season.

[David From Cincy]

If you give Adam Dunn 15 million dollars at the current 70 million that we spend on payroll...that would equal out to the 1/5 that I was referring to.
And as far as teams being able to do it and have success...Milwaukee is doing their business thanks to players like Fielder, Braun, Hardy, and Hart. Players who make next to nothing. Cincinnati doesn't have those young players they can get big time production out of while paying them next to nothing. Which means that they have to spend their money much more wisely. As for your other teams you threw out there...3 of Minnesota's best hitters make combined what Adam Dunn is making. The same is true of the Padres. And as far as the A's, their hitting is horrid all the way around. And they aren't much better wins and losses wise then we are.
As for Dunn. I don't deny what he is. He'll hit .250, get you 100 rbi's, 100 walks, 100 runs, 40 homers, and 150+ strikeouts. Good numbers, no doubt. He's not the player I would hitch my franchise to though. This teams needs an infusion of talent. Major league talent. To do that we need to be economically sound and the money has to come from somewhere.
Also...on a side note...Bronson Arroyo wouldn't be anywhere near the 10-15 wins that you said. So far this year he has given up 6 runs on 8 hits to Chicago, 6 runs on 6 hits to Washington, 6 runs on 7 hits to Pittsburgh, 8 runs on 11 hits to Houston, 6 runs on 9 hits to St. Louis, 7 runs on 8 hits to Texas, and in his last outing 7 runs on 7 hits in an inning and and two thirds to Washington. It's safe to say that he has been a major disappointment this season.

3 of the Twins best hitters may make what Dunn is making, but Torii Hunter alone makes 12,000,000.
As for the Padres, Brian Giles alone makes 10,000,000 this season.
As for the salary, if no extra money is thrown into this franchise to raise payroll then I agree 15,000,000 is too much to give one player. However I feel we will be getting another boost in payroll and more to come in future years in order to compete. If we don't then we will become the Marlins, compete for 1 year out of every 10 and pray that the rest of the MLB is slumping that season.
About Arroyo, how many games has the bullpen given up runners on or simply blown a lead he had leate in a game. Arroyo could easily have 10 wins this season:
By OpponentERAWLSVSVOGGSCGIPHRERHRBBSOAVGvs.LAA4.5000 001106.0933235.333vs. SEA3.8601001107.01033014.385vs. CHC2.53020033021.1201260618.260vs.LAD3.0001001106. 0622042.250vs. NYM3.8601001107.0833213.296vs. STL3.48010033020.220882312.250vs. SDG1.1301001118.01031026.303vs. FLA6.0001001106.0844246.333vs. ARI2.5700001107.0422024.174

There alone are about 10-12 wins that he SHOULD have had this season alone, add that to his current 4 wins and he would have 14-16 wins easily. Those games right there are games anyone and everyone KNOWS he should have had.

[Ali]

Anyone who wants to look to the future and paint Dunn as a HOFer, must address just how the guy will continue to play LF at 300 lbs. At 27-28, he has put on about 40 lbs over the past 5 yrs. That is not normal. The guy has fun swinging for the fences but I don't believe that he takes his profession serious to the point of doing all he can to get better and stay in shape. He has already made it clear, quite selfishly, that he just "doesn't feel comfortable" at 1B, after a spring of being tried there. Who is going to want that lardass patrolling their OF when his body actually matures the way all guys do in their 30's. He WILL BE be a 300 lb player. I hope it's elsewhere.
You honestly think 25 more pounds will change anything? Seriously? Will his range shrink? he is 6'6" - 6'-7" and 270 and honestly, as much as people want to complain, still isn't our worst every day defensive player and isn't even the heaviest, Harang holds that record(being fat as a pitcher can be detrimental as well). Dunn has 4 errors this season, 4. Gonz has 15.....15. EE has 11 and Jr. has 7. People want to make Dunn out to be horrible in the field, but in all honesty this season he has shown that with a CF who has range he can be okay in left. The absolute last thing I worry about is a players weight, that is one of the easier problems to correct.
And what about Jr. do you honestly think he is in the best shape he could be? Harang? Ross? Look up and down this roster and you will see a hand full of players "in shape", to me that points to a much bigger problem than an individual player. This team needs dicipline from the top down, players, managers, coaches, everyone. The last 6 or 7 years the Reds have had more out of shampe players that almost any team I can think of, that is a serious issue, but something that can easily be corrected.


You can't compare an infielder to an outfielder in terms of errors. An infielder has a lot more opportunity to commit them. Fielding, throwing, catching, more bad hops, longer range. Oh, and they are expected to dive and throw a lot more than outfielders. That's why 3B and SS usually have more errors than anyone else on the field.

Hamilton's average only kept dropping close to a week before his injury started meaning he more thn likely just didn't report it.

Plus, Jr has had to deal with about twice the number of hit balls as Dunn AND he actually tries to commit to the ball (leaping, diving, etc.) whereas Dunn scurries over there and makes sure he doesn't lose it. I've never seen Griffey have a ball bounce into mitt and he drops it, I see it at least 2 times a year, AT LEAST, with Dunn.

Hey man, I love Dunn, but I think we can generate some great young talent for him. I also hear Jay Bruce is the best prospect to come through our system since Barry Larkin meaning he exceeds the expectations of Dunn and Kearns. Let's just hope he actually can live up to the all-star potential.

Oh, btw, Dunn is not a HOFer, a HOFer will make many more than one All-Star appearance in his first 5 or so years in the league.

Oh, and Harang and Arroyo were both signed to longer-than-one-year-terms before the season starts, and I think that the Reds and Phillips can agree on a 5 year deal worth less than 5M per, which is still decently sized, but a HUGE discount once we see his production.

The Reds have a lot of young talent, but they also have a lot of trash they need to dispose of. With Milton gone next year, that frees up about 9M to spend, and I say they prove they are FOR REAL and make a pitch at Alex Rodriguez or some other big name starter. Our biggest problem may be pitching, but it's also the fact that we don't have a hitter than can hit over .300 consistently, and haven't since Sean Casey left. And even he hit into too many Double Plays.

[Broken1]

It is true that Hunter makes 12 million dollars. It is also true that Giles makes 10 million out of a 58 million dollar payroll.
What I was trying to show you is that it's the other guys that are the true determining factor between contender and pretender. Teams don't win consistently in baseball due to one good/great player.
Those teams you've mentioned have average salaried players producing at a high level. Those are the type of players the Reds need right now. Instead of the one great player, this team is better served to have 3 or so good players.
As for Arroyo...I am willing to conceed that he has pitched better than his record shows. He hasn't been the pitcher that most expected this season though. In 23 starts this year he has given up at least 6 runs in 7 games. What is that? About one out of every 3?

[shadrac07]

I was just on espn.com a few hours ago and they were talking about the top 6 players that could be the next to past Barry Bonds.


1.A-rod (32 years old, 500hrs- their prediction 790)
2.Griffey Jr. (37 years old, 589hrs- 705
3.A. Jones (30 years old, 363hrs- 614
4.Pujols (27 years old, 274hrs- 585
5.Dunn (27 years old, 228hrs- 578
6.Howard (27 years old, 114hrs- 509