RB Board

[Lolli]

Hang in there for a sec, I look at the average number of players drafted per position per round and create a forced ranking to predict where players are going to fall (this is the first column).

The next number is using the average player draft projection. I average together ESPN, CBS, FOX and eventually the NFLs ranking.

I have found over the years that if the 5 year average shows one number for a round, and the projections show another, the truth is in the middle.

1st Rnd 6 Trent Richardson RB 5'9¼" 228 Alabama
1st Rnd 37 Doug Martin RB 5'9¼" 223 Boise State
2nd Rnd 38 Lamar Miller RB 5'10¾" 212 Miami (FL)
2nd Rnd 41 David Wilson RB 5'9⅝" 206 Virginia Tech
2nd Rnd 65 Isaiah Pead RB 5'10⅛" 197 Cincinnati
3rd Rnd 70 Lamichael James RB 5'8" 194 Oregon
3rd Rnd 84 Chris Polk RB 5'10½" 215 Washington
4th Rnd 88 Bernard Pierce RB 6'0¼" 218 Temple
4th Rnd 102 Robert Turbin RB 5'10" 222 Utah State
4th Rnd 105 Chris Rainey RB 5'8⅜" 180 Florida
4th Rnd 113 Ronnie Hillman RB 5'8¾" 200 San Diego State
5th Rnd 142 Tauren Poole RB 5'10" 205 Tennessee
5th Rnd 144 Cyrus Gray RB 5'10⅜" 206 Texas A&M
5th Rnd 154 Vick Ballard RB 5'10¼" 219 Mississippi State
6th Rnd 170 Terrance Ganaway RB 5'11½" 239 Baylor
6th Rnd 173 Dan Herron RB 5'9¾" 213 Ohio State
6th Rnd 189 Edwin Baker RB 5'8" 204 Michigan State
6th Rnd 193 Emil Igwenagu FB 6'1⅛" 245 Massachusetts
6th Rnd 196 Davin Meggett RB 5'8⅛" 220 Maryland
7th+ Rnd 197 Brandon Bolden RB 5'10⅞" 222 Mississippi
7th+ Rnd 207 Evan Rodriguez FB 6'1½" 244 West Virginia
7th+ Rnd 216 Lennon Creer RB 5'11⅜" 219 Louisiana Tech
7th+ Rnd 220 Marc Tyler RB 5'10⅝" 219 USC
7th+ Rnd 240 Bobby Rainey RB 5'7" 208 Western Kentucky
7th+ Rnd 246 Chad Diehl FB 6'1½" 257 Clemson

This is one where you have to use some common sense. I do not think Doug Martin is a 1st rounder.

[cinc4ever1]

I think Hillman and Grey could both shoot up a Rnd.

[fredtoast]

Originally Posted by Lolli

This is one where you have to use some common sense. I do not think Doug Martin is a 1st rounder.

Agreed. He is a good back, but won't go in the first round.

also if James and Polk drop to the third they will be great value picks.

[Hammerstripes]

Originally Posted by Lolli

Hang in there for a sec, I look at the average number of players drafted per position per round and create a forced ranking to predict where players are going to fall (this is the first column).

The next number is using the average player draft projection. I average together ESPN, CBS, FOX and eventually the NFLs ranking.

I have found over the years that if the 5 year average shows one number for a round, and the projections show another, the truth is in the middle.

1st Rnd 6 Trent Richardson RB 5'9¼" 228 Alabama
1st Rnd 37 Doug Martin RB 5'9¼" 223 Boise State
2nd Rnd 38 Lamar Miller RB 5'10¾" 212 Miami (FL)
2nd Rnd 41 David Wilson RB 5'9⅝" 206 Virginia Tech
2nd Rnd 65 Isaiah Pead RB 5'10⅛" 197 Cincinnati
3rd Rnd 70 Lamichael James RB 5'8" 194 Oregon
3rd Rnd 84 Chris Polk RB 5'10½" 215 Washington
4th Rnd 88 Bernard Pierce RB 6'0¼" 218 Temple
4th Rnd 102 Robert Turbin RB 5'10" 222 Utah State
4th Rnd 105 Chris Rainey RB 5'8⅜" 180 Florida
4th Rnd 113 Ronnie Hillman RB 5'8¾" 200 San Diego State
5th Rnd 142 Tauren Poole RB 5'10" 205 Tennessee
5th Rnd 144 Cyrus Gray RB 5'10⅜" 206 Texas A&M
5th Rnd 154 Vick Ballard RB 5'10¼" 219 Mississippi State
6th Rnd 170 Terrance Ganaway RB 5'11½" 239 Baylor
6th Rnd 173 Dan Herron RB 5'9¾" 213 Ohio State
6th Rnd 189 Edwin Baker RB 5'8" 204 Michigan State
6th Rnd 193 Emil Igwenagu FB 6'1⅛" 245 Massachusetts
6th Rnd 196 Davin Meggett RB 5'8⅛" 220 Maryland
7th+ Rnd 197 Brandon Bolden RB 5'10⅞" 222 Mississippi
7th+ Rnd 207 Evan Rodriguez FB 6'1½" 244 West Virginia
7th+ Rnd 216 Lennon Creer RB 5'11⅜" 219 Louisiana Tech
7th+ Rnd 220 Marc Tyler RB 5'10⅝" 219 USC
7th+ Rnd 240 Bobby Rainey RB 5'7" 208 Western Kentucky
7th+ Rnd 246 Chad Diehl FB 6'1½" 257 Clemson

This is one where you have to use some common sense. I do not think Doug Martin is a 1st rounder.

I always enjoy your rankings, but I find one major flaw with them:

It doesn't take into account the number of players that are projected to go in the first round.

For instance,

What happens if the average # of running backs in the first round is 1, but there are 4 first round graded running backs in this draft? I've always wanted to go back and look at the % of guys with first round grades that go in the first round.

[Lolli]

Originally Posted by Hammerstripes

I always enjoy your rankings, but I find one major flaw with them:

It doesn't take into account the number of players that are projected to go in the first round.

For instance,

What happens if the average # of running backs in the first round is 1, but there are 4 first round graded running backs in this draft? I've always wanted to go back and look at the % of guys with first round grades that go in the first round.

The first column is the average, the next one is the projected pick position. As to the point you are making is that it is somewhere in between. The analysts are good at telling you which positions are going to be hot in the 1st couple of rounds, but they tend to over commit. If the average says 4 and they are predicting 8, I go with 6.

The most interesting thing about the 5 year rolling average is that the total numbers add up close to the same cumulatively by the end of the draft. So for instance the year that Suh was drafted was superhyped for DL, with in 2 rounds it was back to the normal total. So too many in 1 round = less in another. That is important for predicting mid - late rounders.

[goalpost]

Lot of people have said it. Richardson or nobody else in the 1st. Getting a running back that drops seems to be the way to go.

[junglegrowler]

This is one where you have to use some common sense. I do not think Doug Martin is a 1st rounder.

Why do you feel that Doug Martin isn't a first round talent? Aside from Richardson , he strikes me as the best all around back of the draft.
Admittedly I don't know a lot about him but is it just that he's projected as a second rounder by some "experts"?