Official 2012 Reds Thread

[Ali]

Originally Posted by whodey1302

Baseball is a game of streaks; hitting, slumps, winning, losing, pitching, scoring. All of those things are streaky. The Reds just had the most unbelievable month since 1890. This was bound to happen.

The 1990 Reds had 3 losing streaks of at least 5 games and one of them went to 8 games. There is no doom and gloom around this club. They are 19-7 without Votto and 22-7 since the All Star Break.

As others have hinted, if ANY other team loses it's MVP, let alone a league MVP, the wheels could and likely would have fallen completely off the bus. This team has what it takes IMO to make a deep postseason run.

Championship teams find ways to win w/o their/the league MVP. That's what I found to be the best around this team.

For instance, the recent losses of Carpenter/Pujols and last year Wainwright.

The Rangers losing Hamilton for stretches on end.

The Giants losing Posey and/or Panda, etc.

The Reds have done great without Votto...But they need him back in the lineup. And maybe another bat or two via trade...(Please Mr. Jocketty...)

[Patrick D from 83]

Originally Posted by Ali

4th year in the league means you've been there a while and usually your recent numbers are indicative of your career numbers. Don't believe me? I don't care, it's the truth.

But if you'd like an example: Jay Bruce in his 5th year has a career BA of .255. Although he had a few torrid streaks and an early BA over .300, we all expected something closer to .260 than to .300. Because he's been around long enough that his recent numbers (.256 & .281) are more likely accurate than his current numbers over a 162-game season.




In May McCutchen hit .360, in June .370, in July an otherworldly .446, and in August so far he's hitting .381. His worst month of the entire season was April, where he had a .302 average. So we are approaching a 3.5 month time frame where he hit over .360 the whole time.

In April he hit .302...Wonder why that's left off of there.

Regardless, I like how 4 years means nothing when you're talking about your guy versus 3 months. He'll cool down, it's inevitable (barring injury).



BTW, I like how it's obvious that McCutchen wins it. The NL MVP could be a number of guys including Cutch, Votto, Melky, Posey, Braun, Holliday & David Wright.

BTW...What are you doing on a Reds thread? Go make a pirates thread that you can ****** about the umpiring in and try to convince others that the Pirates won't collapse.

Again.

In August/September of 2011: 18-38 (32.1 WP)
In August/September of 2010: 20-36 (35.7 WP)
In August/September of 2009: 17-39 (30.3 WP)

Also, it's very hard to keep up the lucky pace you've had when you've scored 449 runs while giving up 415. Statistically, that equates to a 51.96 projected winning percentage.

Or a projected record of 84-78. Congrats on being on pace to break the streak for most consecutive losing seasons in North American history!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're completely missing the point of what I'm referring to about McCutchen's first 4 years. He was young, he was playing so early because the Pirates were a horrid team. He was playing at an early age when he did not and shouldn't have been expected to be playing out of his mind. I wage to bet if Votto was in the major's around ages 21-24 he'd have had a lower average during those seasons than what he does now, but he got the luxury of coming up to the bigs when he was right around prime blowup territory. That's why its a big deal. When you compare Cutch's 4 seasons which range from ages 21-24, and Vottos which Range from 24-27, there's going to be a discrepancy.

Don't know what you're trying to stress with Jay Bruce here. Bruce best hitting month the whole season hasn't even topped .300. I see he got his average around .300 for a 3 week period at one point but not really anything else anywhere near touching Cutch's consistency during the season. Maybe he's (Bruce) an underachiever with BA?

Also, I did not leave his .302 month off my post. I listed it, its right there. My point was that even in his worst month all season he still hit .302. Even guys with seasons with giant BAs have a bad lowest total month. Cutch has 1 month of .302 batting and 3.5 months of .360 batting. I mean Votto batted .289 in his worst month this year, but thats no big deal I guess. He actually did worse in July where he hit .281 before going out, which is comparable to McCutchen's game total in August so far, but I'll give Votto the benefit of the doubt on that one.

The only other guys you listed new that have a chance of winning the MVP examing the race right now are Posey and Holliday. I'm a Mets fan too, I grew up cheering for them along with the Pirates (long story) and Wright is toast. I was touting him all early season to my Pirate fans as being there with Cutch, but the Mets are baaaaad. Really bad, worse than the Pirates by a bit. He only hit .255 in July as well which is a huge letdown compared to what he did all season beforehand, and he's only hitting .269 in August so far. I'd love to see him go on another tear, but I don't see him matching stats with Cutch at the end of the season and I see the Mets being way further back than the Pirates.

Melky doesn't have enough HRS, unless he goes on a huge tear and knockes off about 15+ of them in the next 50 days he's not gonna have the power. I don't expect that to happen since thats 4 more than his season total of 11 already. Braun has a really decent argument with his stats, but the Brewers are a horrid team this year, ignoring they just swept the Reds. I see them finishing as equally bad as the Mets.

Go make a Pirates thread? I directly addressed the Reds when posted on here about Votto's chances against McCutchen for the MVP. I made one post about a horrendous call on umping that had already been discussed in numerous posts before I did it, and I don't see where I made this huge case the Pirates won't collapse. I made it clear that as long as the Pirates finish somewhere hovering just above .500 I see McCutchen getting the MVP. I didn't put any detailed analysis of why the Pirates won't collapse. In fact I stated the Reds were a better team and that without Cutch the Pirates are dead. You're pulling this stuff outta nowhere.

Final note, don't know if you have been paying attention, but the Pirates already set the record for consecutive losing seasons, 84-78 is a winning record, and I have no idea what you mean being on pace to break the record. The record's already been hit, and you just stated yourself they are slotted to finish with an above .500 record this season which wouldn't add onto it or help them hit the record if they were still below it and on pace to hit it like you said. So maybe I'm missing something here.

[jmccracky]

Hey Pirates fans- http://boards.bengals.com/showthread...00#post2553700

For the ones that know how to read, there ya go.

[xela- whodey]

Votto, please save us

[Megalicious23]

Originally Posted by xela- whodey

Votto, please save us

It was good to see him in the dugout yesterday. cooome back to us, Joey.

[SunsetBengal]

Originally Posted by Megalicious23

It was good to see him in the dugout yesterday. cooome back to us, Joey.

Meg, it's about time you unchained him from your bedpost, the team has been needing him lately.

[Megalicious23]

Originally Posted by SunsetBengal

Meg, it's about time you unchained him from your bedpost, the team has been needing him lately.

why do you think i haven't been on the boards since before he was injured..

we do some kinky, kinky stuff.

[berserkerone88]

We are balancing out from the 24-3 run. Especially without El Jefe.
But once Joey is back, the ship will balance out and sail smooth and straight.

[SouthernStripes]

Oh where oh where have our bats gone?

Is it just me, or is Ondrusek stinking it up lately?

[Bengals41]

Reds got the W today, great news. pittsburgh lost even better stl lost as well, somehow even better. Bengals won. Almost a picture perfect night

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Bengals41

Reds got the W today, great news. pittsburgh lost even better stl lost as well, somehow even better. Bengals won. Almost a picture perfect night

I am saving the perfect night for when the Reds win their championship on the same day the Bengals pick up a win and the Kentucky Wildcats pick up some top 2013 commits :)

[savagehenry54]

Originally Posted by Ali

I am saving the perfect night for when the Reds win their championship on the same day the Bengals pick up a win and the Kentucky Wildcats pick up some top 2013 commits :)

Callipari is such a clean and law abiding citizen.

[Bengals41]

Originally Posted by Ali

I am saving the perfect night for when the Reds win their championship on the same day the Bengals pick up a win and the Kentucky Wildcats pick up some top 2013 commits :)

well 2/3's of that sounds good to me lol. the other well im really indeifferent to

[Morning Star]

Originally Posted by Bengals41

Reds got the W today, great news. pittsburgh lost even better stl lost as well, somehow even better. Bengals won. Almost a picture perfect night

[bengalfan4life27c]

Bad news Reds fans votto had another surgery on his knee. Hes pushed back at least 7 to 10 more days.

[Bengals Mike]

Originally Posted by bengalfan4life27c

Bad news Reds fans votto had another surgery on his knee. Hes pushed back at least 7 to 10 more days.

in other words we should expect him back around the end of the month

[SouthernStripes]

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...10-extra-days/



Give the guy a break,Meg!! ¦p

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Bengals Mike

in other words we should expect him back around the end of the month

He was expected back around Friday, which is the 17th (give or take a couple days.)

With the caution we are likely to practice, I would say the full 10 days (or so) will be tacked on (27th give or take). They are even saying not to expect him back until September.

Gun to my head, I would say the Cards series is when I'd expect him to be back.

If it were my decision, just as long as the Reds can keep some sort of lead, I wouldn't bring him back until he was 100% healthy and ready.

I think with this rust, they'll send him to the minors on a rehab assignment...So expect the very end of August if not early September.

Which is alright by me so long as he's 100% for the month that matters: October.

[jmccracky]

Originally Posted by Ali

He was expected back around Friday, which is the 17th (give or take a couple days.)

With the caution we are likely to practice, I would say the full 10 days (or so) will be tacked on (27th give or take). They are even saying not to expect him back until September.

Gun to my head, I would say the Cards series is when I'd expect him to be back.

If it were my decision, just as long as the Reds can keep some sort of lead, I wouldn't bring him back until he was 100% healthy and ready.

I think with this rust, they'll send him to the minors on a rehab assignment...So expect the very end of August if not early September.

Which is alright by me so long as he's 100% for the month that matters: October.

Great analysis Ali.

Votto being hurt makes a baby 'cracky cry.

You are right, we need him back at 100%. We still have a decent lead over the Pirates. We had our losing streak. If he needs to be out until early September, then I am ok with that. I still say he is the best hitter in baseball. It tickles me to death hearing commentators on ESPN, or other baseball players, say the same thing. A Joey Votto at 100%, is gonna really add something to this team.

[Ali]

Originally Posted by jmccracky

Great analysis Ali.

Votto being hurt makes a baby 'cracky cry.

You are right, we need him back at 100%. We still have a decent lead over the Pirates. We had our losing streak. If he needs to be out until early September, then I am ok with that. I still say he is the best hitter in baseball. It tickles me to death hearing commentators on ESPN, or other baseball players, say the same thing. A Joey Votto at 100%, is gonna really add something to this team.

We still probably need a leadoff batter, though. You can't count on Cozart or Stubbs at this point in time to leadoff (and it still just baffles me as to why they're batting 1-2).

Still, between him coming back and the possibility of landing a true leadoff hitter (Pierre, anyone?) this team could be, in a word...Scary.

[Who2Dey]

Originally Posted by Ali

We still probably need a leadoff batter, though. You can't count on Cozart or Stubbs at this point in time to leadoff (and it still just baffles me as to why they're batting 1-2).

Still, between him coming back and the possibility of landing a true leadoff hitter (Pierre, anyone?) this team could be, in a word...Scary.

God yes on pierre. It blows my mind the opportunities we've had to acquire Pierre and never heard his name mentioned. Leadoff has been a hole every year and every year Pierre plays for a different team.

So to get him now he has to pass waivers and then trade? Would Pittsburgh allow him to pass waivers? I'm sure they could use him.

[Bengals Mike]

Originally Posted by Ali

He was expected back around Friday, which is the 17th (give or take a couple days.)

With the caution we are likely to practice, I would say the full 10 days (or so) will be tacked on (27th give or take). They are even saying not to expect him back until September.

Gun to my head, I would say the Cards series is when I'd expect him to be back.

If it were my decision, just as long as the Reds can keep some sort of lead, I wouldn't bring him back until he was 100% healthy and ready.

I think with this rust, they'll send him to the minors on a rehab assignment...So expect the very end of August if not early September.

Which is alright by me so long as he's 100% for the month that matters: October.

I looked at the schedule when I saw the timeline and the 31st is on a Friday so that would be my best guess depending on how cautious the team wants to be with easing Votto back into the lineup

[SouthernStripes]

Looks those days off Dusty gave Bruce worked.

2 run shot, 2-0 good guys in the 5th.

We'll see if he can keep it up.

[Bengals41]

Reds Win! greta game by Cueto and Chapman. and thank you bruce and ludwick for providing the runs

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Bengals41

Reds Win! greta game by Cueto and Chapman. and thank you bruce and ludwick for providing the runs

Cueto did have another outstanding outing to make him a 15-game winner and we're not even halfway through August yet!

The big question I want to ask is: Can he win 20 games?

He sure as hell can! There are 47 games left meaning that he should have, if he stays healthy, 9 starts left. An ace should win the majority of their appearances.

To put it in perspective, he's won 62.5% of his starts. Add in 9 more starts (33 total) and if he keeps that pace through the end of the year he's at 20.6 wins. Remarkable!

He would be our first 20-game winner since 1988 when Danny Jackson got 23...Let's keep at it Mr. Cueto!!!