Official 2012 Reds Thread

[rfaulk34]

Originally Posted by Ali

Pretty embarassing things said by some supposed fans.

Among qualifiers:
Johnny Cueto has the 3rd most wins in MLB, 1 off the mark for most (17)
Johnny Cueto has the 4th best ERA in MLB, .17 off the mark (2.71)

Joey Votto would be leading the majors in BA if he were a qualifier.

The Reds lost 2 out of 3 and one of those was a major fluke. The other guy showed he was human by having a rough outing.

Get over it. It happens.

To get to 100 wins, the reds need to finish the year 16-5. Not undoable, but tough.

To get to 95 wins, the reds need to go 11-10. They are likely somewhere in between there like I had said for some time. Guess what...If they win 97 games, I'll be just as happy as I would if they win 100.

As far as 20 wins for Johnny? He needs to win 3 out of his next 4 or 5 decisions (depending on whether or not Dusty rests him for the last couple of games to make sure he goes game #1)

Again. Doable.

It just ****** me off that the Reds, owners of the 2nd best record in all of baseball (even with a month and a half of their BEST PLAYER being injured) have whiney fans crying about what they perceive as "likely happening" because they've seen the Bengals give it up.

As if the Bengals past in any way affects the Reds.

Or as though a young and inexperienced squad who shocked everyone getting into the playoffs and then subsequently getting swept by an exponentially superior team 2 years ago will "bow out weakly."

Congratulations on your undying optimism. Nothing i said is beyond reason. It's called empirical evidence based on years of observation. That's not to say the Reds are going to fall on their face and "bow out weakly" this year. If they pick up steam at the end of the year and get to the series, i'm going to be there with a smile on my face.

Previous predictions of 100+ wins and all the other stuff that went along with it, is unreasonable based on the years of evidence against it. If you're not clear on the past 30 years of sports in the Cincinnati market, i'd be happy to refresh your memory. Or maybe you just choose to ignore the past. If that's the case, Edmund Burke would like to have a word with you...

Regardless, nothing i've said points to a negative view or a predictor of things to come. A question was asked and i answered it. If you've taken the time to read some of my threads around the time there was all the hubbub about the Reds continuing their winning streak through the end of the year, you should see that i'm a firm believer in ebb and flow. And since that time, it's pretty much leveled off to what i expected.

Going into the post-season, i have confidence in two starting pitchers right now; Cueto and Latos. Arroyo is getting close but i have no confidence in either Bailey or Leake right now. Since the Reds will be starting on the road and since Bailey has been good on the road this year, the optimist in me sees Cueto starting Game 1 and Bailey starting game 2 with Latos getting the nod at home. That still leaves me cringing a bit. With two weeks left in the season, the Reds still have time to ride out this ebb and start playing better going into the playoffs. We will see if that happens though.

So now you can feel free to get those panties un-bunched.

[COLTSH8R]

Originally Posted by rfaulk34

Congratulations on your undying optimism. Nothing i said is beyond reason. It's called empirical evidence based on years of observation. That's not to say the Reds are going to fall on their face and "bow out weakly" this year. If they pick up steam at the end of the year and get to the series, i'm going to be there with a smile on my face.

Previous predictions of 100+ wins and all the other stuff that went along with it, is unreasonable based on the years of evidence against it. If you're not clear on the past 30 years of sports in the Cincinnati market, i'd be happy to refresh your memory. Or maybe you just choose to ignore the past. If that's the case, Edmund Burke would like to have a word with you...

Regardless, nothing i've said points to a negative view or a predictor of things to come. A question was asked and i answered it. If you've taken the time to read some of my threads around the time there was all the hubbub about the Reds continuing their winning streak through the end of the year, you should see that i'm a firm believer in ebb and flow. And since that time, it's pretty much leveled off to what i expected.

Going into the post-season, i have confidence in two starting pitchers right now; Cueto and Latos. Arroyo is getting close but i have no confidence in either Bailey or Leake right now. Since the Reds will be starting on the road and since Bailey has been good on the road this year, the optimist in me sees Cueto starting Game 1 and Bailey starting game 2 with Latos getting the nod at home. That still leaves me cringing a bit. With two weeks left in the season, the Reds still have time to ride out this ebb and start playing better going into the playoffs. We will see if that happens though.

So now you can feel free to get those panties un-bunched.

It's called empirical evidence based on years of bservation.

Like your this just in 11:00 news?

Empirical... Lmfao

[Bengals Mike]

For those who missed it, MLB released next season's schedule today and the Reds are the first to start this new interleague format hosting the Angels on Opening Day

Under the new schedule format, a team plays 19 games against each division rival for a total of 76, and six or seven against each league opponent in the other two divisions for a total of 66. Each club will play 20 interleague games over eight series, with rivalry games -- such as Cubs-White Sox and Dodgers-Angels -- in consecutive two-game series during the week of May 27.

In the old format, teams in the AL East, AL Central, NL East and NL West played division rivals 18 times each, while AL West played in-division opponents 19 times apiece and NL Central teams met 15-18 times. AL interdivision opponents met six to 10 times and NL interdivision opponents six to nine times. While AL teams played 18 interleague games, the total varied from 12-18 in the NL.

In addition to traditional rivals, interleague play next year has the AL East playing the NL West, the NL East facing the AL Central and the AL West meeting the NL Central.

the Reds interleague opponents will be:
4 with the Indians, 2 home and 2 away over 4 days in May
4 with the A's, 2 home and 2 away in 2 different months
3 with the Angels in Cincinnati to open the season
3 with the Rangers in Arlington in June
3 with the Mariners in Cincinnati in July

and I overlooked this one many times taking for granted they were always in the NL til next year
3 with the Astros in Houston in September

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/sched...lendar=DEFAULT

[/sp/artan]

I really hope the astros do well in the AL. Just gives the NL something to brag about

[rfaulk34]

Originally Posted by COLTSH8R

It's called empirical evidence based on years of bservation.

Like your this just in 11:00 news?

Empirical... Lmfao

File the sig under 'satire', homeskizzle. The sarcasm being aimed at anyone that would be surprised to hear the news that "the bungles" won the SB.

Get it? Good!

[TommyC]

Reds


Stretch run match
The Reds stand 86-57 with 19 games remaining.
The Reds lead St Louis 75-67 by 10.5 games
What will it take for the Cardinals to catch the Reds?
If Reds go 10-9 rest of way (96-66):
Cards cannot catch Reds
If Reds go 9-10 rest of way (95-67)
Cards must go 20-0 to tie
If Reds go 8-11 rest of way (94-68)
Cards must go 19-1 to tie

[xela- whodey]

Originally Posted by TommyC

Reds


Stretch run match
The Reds stand 86-57 with 19 games remaining.
The Reds lead St Louis 75-67 by 10.5 games
What will it take for the Cardinals to catch the Reds?
If Reds go 10-9 rest of way (96-66):
Cards cannot catch Reds
If Reds go 9-10 rest of way (95-67)
Cards must go 20-0 to tie
If Reds go 8-11 rest of way (94-68)
Cards must go 19-1 to tie

Cardinals fans, "so...you're saying there's a chance!"

[Ali]

Awesome win by our Redlegs today against a tough foe and probably the final blow to Pittsburgh's playoff hopes. Still, they have a shot for their first winning season in 20 years (since 1992).

Still, they are on the verge of a 2nd straight September collapse as they've now fallen to 72-70 and need to finish off the year 10-10 (.500) or better to accomplish that feat.

The Reds are currently on pace to finish 98-64, or right on my 95-105, with a likelihood of 98 wins and a possibility of 100 range.

I know that's a big gap, but my pre-season prediction was 95 wins and this team is on pace for that.

Still, it looks as though my preseason prediction could come true (CIN-STL-MIL-PIT-ChC-HOU) and the Reds could end up with homefield advantage throughout (NL won the ASG & are 2.5 back of Washington for best record in all of baseball).

But the scary thing is the overall playoff picture:

The virtual locks for post-season play are the current divisional leaders: Washington, Cincinnati and San Francisco. One of the wildcard slots is mostly in the bag barring another late-season meltdown as Atlanta is 6.5 games up on the #3 team in the Dodgers.

The last wild card slot is as follows:
STL (75-68)
LAD (74-68) .5 GB
PIT (72-70) 2.5 GB
PHI (72-71) 3 GB
MIL (71-71) 3.5 GB
ARI (70-72) 4.5 GB

And an update...Milwaukee is up on Atlanta 8-2 in the Top of 9.
Dodgers are up on Arizona 2-1 at the end of 5
SD beat STL (again) 3-2, but that's been accounted for.
Philly & PIT are already accounted for as the former won and the latter lost.

This is one tight race and all those teams can be formidable foes. My main concern lies with Philly and LA and then slightly with STL..But Philly has a history of putting us down and LA could be a juggernaut if they make it into and mesh in October.

[/sp/artan]

Anyone but the cardinals. I dont wanna see last year again.

[Ali]

Originally Posted by /sp/artan

Anyone but the cardinals. I dont wanna see last year again.

Meh, the Reds are 6-6 so far against the Cards with 3 more coming up to start October. By that point, we may be trying to fight them out of the playoffs.

5-4 at home
1-2 on the road.

Series victory goes to the victor in October and Dusty believes in playing for the integrity of the game.

BTW, last year the Redlegs were 9-6 against the Cards..

[Bengals Mike]

Originally Posted by Ali

Meh, the Reds are 6-6 so far against the Cards with 3 more coming up to start October. By that point, we may be trying to fight them out of the playoffs.

5-4 at home
1-2 on the road.

Series victory goes to the victor in October and Dusty believes in playing for the integrity of the game.

BTW, last year the Redlegs were 9-6 against the Cards..

I think the magic number is down to 8

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Bengals Mike

I think the magic number is down to 8

Sure is, and Cincy's is smaller than any other Magic number.

However, their magic number could be put at 6 for the playoffs and 8 for the Central!

[rfaulk34]

Originally Posted by Ali

Awesome win by our Redlegs today against a tough foe and probably the final blow to Pittsburgh's playoff hopes. Still, they have a shot for their first winning season in 20 years (since 1992).

Still, they are on the verge of a 2nd straight September collapse as they've now fallen to 72-70 and need to finish off the year 10-10 (.500) or better to accomplish that feat.

The Reds are currently on pace to finish 98-64, or right on my 95-105, with a likelihood of 98 wins and a possibility of 100 range.

I know that's a big gap, but my pre-season prediction was 95 wins and this team is on pace for that.

Still, it looks as though my preseason prediction could come true (CIN-STL-MIL-PIT-ChC-HOU) and the Reds could end up with homefield advantage throughout (NL won the ASG & are 2.5 back of Washington for best record in all of baseball).

But the scary thing is the overall playoff picture:

The virtual locks for post-season play are the current divisional leaders: Washington, Cincinnati and San Francisco. One of the wildcard slots is mostly in the bag barring another late-season meltdown as Atlanta is 6.5 games up on the #3 team in the Dodgers.

The last wild card slot is as follows:
STL (75-68)
LAD (74-68) .5 GB
PIT (72-70) 2.5 GB
PHI (72-71) 3 GB
MIL (71-71) 3.5 GB
ARI (70-72) 4.5 GB

And an update...Milwaukee is up on Atlanta 8-2 in the Top of 9.
Dodgers are up on Arizona 2-1 at the end of 5
SD beat STL (again) 3-2, but that's been accounted for.
Philly & PIT are already accounted for as the former won and the latter lost.

This is one tight race and all those teams can be formidable foes. My main concern lies with Philly and LA and then slightly with STL..But Philly has a history of putting us down and LA could be a juggernaut if they make it into and mesh in October.

Philly is coming on hard down the stretch and Milwaukee is right on their heels. It's going to be interesting to see if either can force their way into the second WC slot.

[STC]

Originally Posted by rfaulk34

Philly is coming on hard down the stretch and Milwaukee is right on their heels. It's going to be interesting to see if either can force their way into the second WC slot.

I'm scared of Philly. We will not win a series against them.

[Helldog]

Originally Posted by STC

I'm scared of Philly. We will not win a series against them.

Yeah Philly definitely makes me extremely nervous. I don't know what the hell it is but we don't know how to win a series against them. Hopefully they don't make it in.

[Morning Star]

Originally Posted by TommyC

Reds


Stretch run match
The Reds stand 86-57 with 19 games remaining.
The Reds lead St Louis 75-67 by 10.5 games
What will it take for the Cardinals to catch the Reds?
If Reds go 10-9 rest of way (96-66):
Cards cannot catch Reds
If Reds go 9-10 rest of way (95-67)
Cards must go 20-0 to tie
If Reds go 8-11 rest of way (94-68)
Cards must go 19-1 to tie

Yes almost impossibe to lose this..My concern is Davey of washington being more experienced than Dusty if it came to this..

[whodey1302]

Originally Posted by Morning Star

Yes almost impossibe to lose this..My concern is Davey of washington being more experienced than Dusty if it came to this..

I don't know about that. Dusty has taken one team to a world series, and another one out away from the world series.

In Dusty I Trusty.

[Ali]

Originally Posted by whodey1302

I don't know about that. Dusty has taken one team to a world series, and another one out away from the world series.

In Dusty I Trusty.

Don't forget he made it 3 times as a player and won it once.

The man has a plethora of post-season experience.

And any person that can take the Cubs that close to the Series has to be good...

[Ron Mexico]

I would like to offer my apologies to the Reds....

Football season started, and got too caught up in it. 18 games to play, and a magic number of 8 to secure the division crown? Sweet. I should be paying more attention to this.

[whodey1302]

Originally Posted by Ali

Don't forget he made it 3 times as a player and won it once.

The man has a plethora of post-season experience.

And any person that can take the Cubs that close to the Series has to be good...

That's true.

I'm surprised we haven't heard more from "fans" about how Dusty is gonna burn his starters out since they've only used 5. (Save for the double header where Redmond pitched game 2)

[XenoMorph]

Originally Posted by whodey1302

That's true.

I'm surprised we haven't heard more from "fans" about how Dusty is gonna burn his starters out since they've only used 5. (Save for the double header where Redmond pitched game 2)

Do other teams not play their starters all year?

[whodey1302]

Originally Posted by BengalsFan024

Do other teams not play their starters all year?

Other teams, because of injury, performance, or schedule usually have far more than 5 starters for a season. It just seems like most fans HAVE to gripe about something and this is about the only stone left unturned.

For the record, I have no problem with it.

[XenoMorph]

Originally Posted by whodey1302

Other teams, because of injury, performance, or schedule usually have far more than 5 starters for a season. It just seems like most fans HAVE to gripe about something and this is about the only stone left unturned.

For the record, I have no problem with it.

My boss is a baseball nut. And he says if you can keep your 5 starts for 80% of the season you should be in the playoffs almost every time.

If they need more rest before october start pulling them out early. But i really dont want to see a 6th person added to the rotation.

[whodey1302]

Originally Posted by BengalsFan024

My boss is a baseball nut. And he says if you can keep your 5 starts for 80% of the season you should be in the playoffs almost every time.

If they need more rest before october start pulling them out early. But i really dont want to see a 6th person added to the rotation.

I'm not sure of the numbers behind it but I agree with him. After they clinch I could see them letting Cueto and Latos skip a start.

[Megalicious23]

Originally Posted by Ali

Sure is, and Cincy's is smaller than any other Magic number.

However, their magic number could be put at 6 for the playoffs and 8 for the Central!

Soo amazing. mlbtv has definitely paid for itself :)