Official 2012 Reds Thread

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by Megalicious23

Soo amazing. mlbtv has definitely paid for itself :)

And it looks like they are back into place again....still would love to see some bats heat up for the playoffs

[TommyC]

Trying to figure out the Reds 25-man playoff roster is fun but here goes:
The Reds will play a five game opening round series. There is a day off between Game 2 and Game 3.

Do the Reds go with 14 hitters/11 pitchers, like they did in 2010?

Position players/locks (13)
Hanigan, Navarro, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Frazier, Stubbs, Bruce
Ludwick, Heisey, Valdez, Paul.
Remaining options:
One or none from these two: Cairo or Mesoraco.
Pitchers/locks (10)
SP-Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey
RP-Chapman, Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Arredondo, Hoover
Remaining options:
One or two of these four: Ondrusek, Simon, Leake, Cingrani

[Ali]

Originally Posted by TommyC

Trying to figure out the Reds 25-man playoff roster is fun but here goes:
The Reds will play a five game opening round series. There is a day off between Game 2 and Game 3.

Do the Reds go with 14 hitters/11 pitchers, like they did in 2010?

Position players/locks (13)
Hanigan, Navarro, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Frazier, Stubbs, Bruce
Ludwick, Heisey, Valdez, Paul.
Remaining options:
One or none from these two: Cairo or Mesoraco.
Pitchers/locks (10)
SP-Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey
RP-Chapman, Broxton, Marshall, LeCure, Arredondo, Hoover
Remaining options:
One or two of these four: Ondrusek, Simon, Leake, Cingrani

Don't count Navarro as a lock as they're talking about Mesoraco...They could go with 3 catchers, of course.

[whodey1302]

Originally Posted by Ali

Don't count Navarro as a lock as they're talking about Mesoraco...They could go with 3 catchers, of course.

IMO Navarro is head and shoulders more valuable to the Reds. He's a switch hitter who makes decent contact. His defense isn't quite as good as Mesoraco, but Hanigan is going to catch every game in the post season anyway.

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by whodey1302

IMO Navarro is head and shoulders more valuable to the Reds. He's a switch hitter who makes decent contact. His defense isn't quite as good as Mesoraco, but Hanigan is going to catch every game in the post season anyway.

Yeah Navarro is hands down the better overall of the 2, but I wish we would've went with grandal more than either

[whodey1302]

Originally Posted by Boomerdaulton21

Yeah Navarro is hands down the better overall of the 2, but I wish we would've went with grandal more than either

But would you rather have Latos or Volquez on this roster?

That's what a lot of people don't seem to understand. Some people act like Grandal and Mesoraco are interchangeable parts. I always hear people say that the Reds should have shipped Mez instead as part of the Latos deal. Grandal was likely a huge cornerstone piece to that deal for the Padres and they may have wanted nothing to do with Mez.

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by whodey1302

But would you rather have Latos or Volquez on this roster?

That's what a lot of people don't seem to understand. Some people act like Grandal and Mesoraco are interchangeable parts. I always hear people say that the Reds should have shipped Mez instead as part of the Latos deal. Grandal was likely a huge cornerstone piece to that deal for the Padres and they may have wanted nothing to do with Mez.

Well I am aware of the overall trade and I like latos better I do however think that grandal Alonso and volquez is a much better deal than mez or both. I'm just glad we have hanigan

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Boomerdaulton21

Well I am aware of the overall trade and I like latos better I do however think that grandal Alonso and volquez is a much better deal than mez or both. I'm just glad we have hanigan

Replace Volquez with Latos and this team is fighting for a wildcard spot imo.

Remember what Volquez did last year? 5-7 5.71 ERA in 20 starts.

Alonso would be riding the bench and Grandal would have been a September call-up that would have made him ineligible for the post-season roster.

Oh, btw...As an update to this: Grandal hit .188 in August and is currently hitting .257 in August to make him a .224 hitter since the dog days or, in short, when people got film on him and adjusted.

Alonso is batting a respectable .270 with 8 HR & 53 RBI. That's not superstar stuff, especially for a guy that can only play 1B and thus is completely blocked.

Volquez? 10-10 with a 4.24 ERA and 100 walks.

[TommyC]

Stretch run math

The Reds stand 88-59 with 15 games remaining.
The Reds lead St Louis 77-70 by 11 games
What will it take for the Cardinals to catch the Reds?
If Reds go 5-10 rest of way (93-69)
Cards cannot catch the Reds
If Reds go 4-11 rest of way (92-70)
Cards must go 15-0 to catch Reds
If Reds go 3-12 rest of way (91-71)
Cards must go 14-1 to catch Reds

[Ali]

Originally Posted by TommyC

Stretch run math

The Reds stand 88-59 with 15 games remaining.
The Reds lead St Louis 77-70 by 11 games
What will it take for the Cardinals to catch the Reds?
If Reds go 5-10 rest of way (93-69)
Cards cannot catch the Reds
If Reds go 4-11 rest of way (92-70)
Cards must go 15-0 to catch Reds
If Reds go 3-12 rest of way (91-71)
Cards must go 14-1 to catch Reds

Or: The Reds have a magic number of 5. Win 5 games and they're in. Cards lose 5 games and the Reds are in. Any combination of that, and it's clinched.

BTW, the Reds are 3 wins away (already) from tying their entire season total of 2010.

Expect both those numbers to be at least achieved this week.

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by Ali

Replace Volquez with Latos and this team is fighting for a wildcard spot imo.

Remember what Volquez did last year? 5-7 5.71 ERA in 20 starts.

Alonso would be riding the bench and Grandal would have been a September call-up that would have made him ineligible for the post-season roster.

Oh, btw...As an update to this: Grandal hit .188 in August and is currently hitting .257 in August to make him a .224 hitter since the dog days or, in short, when people got film on him and adjusted.

Alonso is batting a respectable .270 with 8 HR & 53 RBI. That's not superstar stuff, especially for a guy that can only play 1B and thus is completely blocked.

Volquez? 10-10 with a 4.24 ERA and 100 walks.

Grandal would certainly jot be a sept call up IMO!!! He has more upside than mez and I think he is better than Navarro no questions asked...wts...I don't think Navarro is the problem...mez to me is!! Volquez underachieved last yr no doubt...but so did most of cincy s lineup!! I would take certainly take volquez numbers consistent or not over arroyo, leake, and would say although this yr he is slightly below latos .....given this yr he would def be our #3 and could be a very solid #2.

[whodey1302]

Originally Posted by Boomerdaulton21

Grandal would certainly jot be a sept call up IMO!!! He has more upside than mez and I think he is better than Navarro no questions asked...wts...I don't think Navarro is the problem...mez to me is!! Volquez underachieved last yr no doubt...but so did most of cincy s lineup!! I would take certainly take volquez numbers consistent or not over arroyo, leake, and would say although this yr he is slightly below latos .....given this yr he would def be our #3 and could be a very solid #2.

To say that you'd take Volquez over Arroyo is laughable. You realize that Volquez has walked 100 batters this year right? Arroyo has walked 33. Arroyo's WHIP this year is 1.213 compared to Volquez at 1.449. And for Latos? He's walked 62 with a WHIP of 1.204.

So you'd really rather have Volquez?

[Ali]

Originally Posted by whodey1302

To say that you'd take Volquez over Arroyo is laughable. You realize that Volquez has walked 100 batters this year right? Arroyo has walked 33. Arroyo's WHIP this year is 1.213 compared to Volquez at 1.449. And for Latos? He's walked 62 with a WHIP of 1.204.

So you'd really rather have Volquez?

Yeah, anyone who says that is either trying to be ridiculous or knows nothing about how to operate a pitching staff. Or both. The fact of the matter is Volquez has worse numbers across the board as Arroyo in what is probably the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league whereas Volquez is in one of the 3 most pitcher-friendly parks in the league.

In short, it's a ludicrous statement and you're right on my friend.

Originally Posted by Boomerdaulton21

Grandal would certainly jot be a sept call up IMO!!! He has more upside than mez and I think he is better than Navarro no questions asked...wts...I don't think Navarro is the problem...mez to me is!! Volquez underachieved last yr no doubt...but so did most of cincy s lineup!! I would take certainly take volquez numbers consistent or not over arroyo, leake, and would say although this yr he is slightly below latos .....given this yr he would def be our #3 and could be a very solid #2.

He would. He was going to start in A or AA. Best case scenario is that they bring him up instead of Navarro. Look up what Mes did last year in the minors and when he got called up.

And, Volquez is awful. He had an electric start and has since been horrible. In pitcher friendly PETCO Park. You do know about PETCO, don't you?

[Morning Star]

The reds were predicited to win the world series according to Sports illustrated before the season even started..I think if we can get past Washington that is a real possibility!

[Helldog]

Unfortunately, SI is usually never right.

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by Ali

Yeah, anyone who says that is either trying to be ridiculous or knows nothing about how to operate a pitching staff. Or both. The fact of the matter is Volquez has worse numbers across the board as Arroyo in what is probably the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league whereas Volquez is in one of the 3 most pitcher-friendly parks in the league.

In short, it's a ludicrous statement and you're right on my friend.



He would. He was going to start in A or AA. Best case scenario is that they bring him up instead of Navarro. Look up what Mes did last year in the minors and when he got called up.

And, Volquez is awful. He had an electric start and has since been horrible. In pitcher friendly PETCO Park. You do know about PETCO, don't you?

I've actually played there before.....(college) and I am well aware of the park being hitter friendly...
Volquez is However not anywhere near as bad as you are making him out to be....his kryptonite is that he walks too many....his worst own enemy... His ball moves better than most...now I'm not a huge arroyo or leake fan but I'd take volquez and his numbers at GABP anyday over leake and arroyo. But that wasn't who the trade was for so I'm glad we got latos!!! I'm just mad that they got Alonso and grandal.... Alonso was the bug one to me...yes votto is there but we have switched around the lineup so much bc of votto to get Frazier and lud in that you can never go wrong with having a nice left handed stick coming off the bench ala Xavier Paul!!

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Boomerdaulton21

I've actually played there before.....(college) and I am well aware of the park being hitter friendly...
Volquez is However not anywhere near as bad as you are making him out to be....his kryptonite is that he walks too many....his worst own enemy... His ball moves better than most...now I'm not a huge arroyo or leake fan but I'd take volquez and his numbers at GABP anyday over leake and arroyo. But that wasn't who the trade was for so I'm glad we got latos!!! I'm just mad that they got Alonso and grandal.... Alonso was the bug one to me...yes votto is there but we have switched around the lineup so much bc of votto to get Frazier and lud in that you can never go wrong with having a nice left handed stick coming off the bench ala Xavier Paul!!

Volquez wasn't that bad as bad in GABP?

He has a career 4.55 ERA

In 20 starts in 2012 he had a 5.71 ERA and 1.574 WHIP. Both of those numbers are atrocious. He also gave up 19 home runs and, if he played a full season (we'll say 32 games) that would equate to a little over 30 HRs. That is atrocious

In 2011 he had a 4.31 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in only 12 starts. If you combine his numbers between both of those years, he would have had 1 full season under his belt with the following statistics:

9-10, 171 IP, 5.21 ERA, 1.550 WHIP, 100 Walks, 25 HR, 7 HBP, 10 WP. He threw 171K.

The only number up there that looks like a major leaguer pitcher's numbers are his strikeouts. The rest just shows what we all already know: The man has no idea where the ball is going most of the time.

Bringing up his past is moot as well. He had an ERA lower than 4.3 only one time in his 8 year career. 4.3 is good for above average, btw.

As far as better than Arroyo, the only year he had better numbers than Arroyo was 2008. And the only time he's ever been more reliable than Arroyo was never.

And Leake? He has having a better year so far this year. The other 2 years of Leake's career have been much better than Volquez's same years. And the guy was in college just 3 years ago, so...

Yeah. Volquez stinks.

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by Ali

Volquez wasn't that bad as bad in GABP?

He has a career 4.55 ERA

In 20 starts in 2012 he had a 5.71 ERA and 1.574 WHIP. Both of those numbers are atrocious. He also gave up 19 home runs and, if he played a full season (we'll say 32 games) that would equate to a little over 30 HRs. That is atrocious

In 2011 he had a 4.31 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in only 12 starts. If you combine his numbers between both of those years, he would have had 1 full season under his belt with the following statistics:

9-10, 171 IP, 5.21 ERA, 1.550 WHIP, 100 Walks, 25 HR, 7 HBP, 10 WP. He threw 171K.

The only number up there that looks like a major leaguer pitcher's numbers are his strikeouts. The rest just shows what we all already know: The man has no idea wherthe ball is going most of the time.

Bringing up his past is moot as well. He had an ERA lower than 4.3 only one time in his 8 year career. 4.3 is good for above average, btw.

As far as better than Arroyo, the only year he had better numbers than Arroyo was 2008. And the only time he's ever been more reliable than Arroyo was never.

And Leake? He has having a better year so far this year. The other 2 years of Leake's career have been much better than Volquez's same years. And the guy was in college just 3 years ago, so...

Yeah. Volquez stinks.

30-18 is not that bad at all

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by Ali

Volquez wasn't that bad as bad in GABP?

He has a career 4.55 ERA

In 20 starts in 2012 he had a 5.71 ERA and 1.574 WHIP. Both of those numbers are atrocious. He also gave up 19 home runs and, if he played a full season (we'll say 32 games) that would equate to a little over 30 HRs. That is atrocious

In 2011 he had a 4.31 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in only 12 starts. If you combine his numbers between both of those years, he would have had 1 full season under his belt with the following statistics:

9-10, 171 IP, 5.21 ERA, 1.550 WHIP, 100 Walks, 25 HR, 7 HBP, 10 WP. He threw 171K.

The only number up there that looks like a major leaguer pitcher's numbers are his strikeouts. The rest just shows what we all already know: The man has no idea where the ball is going most of the time.

Bringing up his past is moot as well. He had an ERA lower than 4.3 only one time in his 8 year career. 4.3 is good for above average, btw.

As far as better than Arroyo, the only year he had better numbers than Arroyo was 2008. And the only time he's ever been more reliable than Arroyo was never.

And Leake? He has having a better year so far this year. The other 2 years of Leake's career have been much better than Volquez's same years. And the guy was in college just 3 years ago, so...

Yeah. Volquez stinks.

outside of cueto no one likes pitching in GABP!!! The guy has a lifetime 4.17 era avg for 8 yrs is under 10 hr given up a yr...outside of when he was with Texas for 3 yrs I'd say our opinions differ bc wins are wins and with cincy he won over 60% of the time...I'll take those numbers...Bailey has really came into his own but we never gave up on him....leake is more of a hitter than a pitcher to me...just saying....arroyo is a nice change of pace and an inning eater...I like that about him but on a straight up trade for volquez...I'd do it in a heartbeat!!!

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Boomerdaulton21

30-18 is not that bad at all

Yeah, and that's just one look at his numbers...Let's look at the rest:

For his Reds Career he has a:
4.17 ERA - Below average
104.25 IP/Year average - Awful
1.417 WHIP - Atrocious
18.25 starts/year - Pitiful

Oh, and you throw out his career year which is, by all counts, an anomaly compared to the rest of his career numbers and you have and completely bloats his other numbers, we get: (with the Reds alone)

13-12 - Not too bad...For a 3/4 on a winning squad
5.17 ERA - Awful
73 & 2/3 IP average - Atrocious
1.498 WHIP - Ew.
13.6667 starts/year - Wow...

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Boomerdaulton21

outside of cueto no one likes pitching in GABP!!! The guy has a lifetime 4.17 era avg for 8 yrs is under 10 hr given up a yr...outside of when he was with Texas for 3 yrs I'd say our opinions differ bc wins are wins and with cincy he won over 60% of the time...I'll take those numbers...Bailey has really came into his own but we never gave up on him....leake is more of a hitter than a pitcher to me...just saying....arroyo is a nice change of pace and an inning eater...I like that about him but on a straight up trade for volquez...I'd do it in a heartbeat!!!

I would never want Volquez ont his team again for any purpose but bullpen relief.

He's got stuff that you swing and miss at, but he can not, for the life of him, consistently hit the strikezone.

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by Ali

Yeah, and that's just one look at his numbers...Let's look at the rest:

For his Reds Career he has a:
4.17 ERA - Below average
104.25 IP/Year average - Awful
1.417 WHIP - Atrocious
18.25 starts/year - Pitiful

Oh, and you throw out his career year which is, by all counts, an anomaly compared to the rest of his career numbers and you have and completely bloats his other numbers, we get: (with the Reds alone)

13-12 - Not too bad...For a 3/4 on a winning squad
5.17 ERA - Awful
73 & 2/3 IP average - Atrocious
1.498 WHIP - Ew.


13.6667 starts/year - Wow...

So the 30-18 record in 4 yrs means nothing??? Kinda thought that the final score was the big stat!!!!

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by Ali

I would never want Volquez ont his team again for any purpose but bullpen relief.

He's got stuff that you swing and miss at, but he can not, for the life of him, consistently hit the strikezone.

Like I said before...outside of Johnny there aren't too many era that look avg at all in GABP!!!

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Boomerdaulton21

Like I said before...outside of Johnny there aren't too many era that look avg at all in GABP!!!

Bronson Arroyo: 46-38 3.98 ERA 1.256 WHIP
Mike Leake: 18-12 4.66 ERA 1.383 WHIP
Mat Latos: 8-3 3.35 ERA 1.108 WHIP



Edinson Volquez?
15-9 4.49 1.403


Judging by those numbers alone, you can see that Edinson was actually better at home than on the road. Oh, and was the great beneficiary of run-saving defense and run-producing offense.

And would be our 5th starter. And how much better Latos has been is scary.

Want to try again so I can, yet again, prove you wrong? Or will you just admit that Volquez is a bad pitcher. He had one good year.

4 years ago.

[7sLefty]

Originally Posted by Ali

Bronson Arroyo: 46-38 3.98 ERA 1.256 WHIP
Mike Leake: 18-12 4.66 ERA 1.383 WHIP
Mat Latos: 8-3 3.35 ERA 1.108 WHIP



Edinson Volquez?
15-9 4.49 1.403


Judging by those numbers alone, you can see that Edinson was actually better at home than on the road. Oh, and was the great beneficiary of run-saving defense and run-producing offense.

And would be our 5th starter. And how much better Latos has been is scary.

Want to try again so I can, yet again, prove you wrong? Or will you just admit that Volquez is a bad pitcher. He had one good year.

4 years ago.

So you proved me wrong huh...wow that just went over my head....it's your opinion and thats all it is.....15-9 is still fine by me....volquez would be number 4 starter if it were me.....MY OPINION !!!! Like I said...Bailey has been pitching just as good as anyone along side cueto and latos!!!! But before this season please let me hear your argument that Bailey was on his way out the door or close to it...look had a great rookie yr in minimal starts....haven't seen much from him from a pitching standpoint!!! I'm very mixed about arroyo....his type of pitching is a good change of pace so we need him for that...but not overly impressed!!!! Between arroyo leake Bailey and volquez I would go Bailey volquez arroyo leake!!!! They've all been inconsistent so I can do this all night on you proving me wrong
P.s. - I've seen way worse in cincy than volquez....not too many all stars that I know of that can be considered bad...but thanks for the laugh....keep drinking the haterade