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  #26  
Old 11-06-2012, 08:44 AM
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Default Re: Retaining our own drafted players

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Originally Posted by tmangoud View Post
But what about all these great drafts I hear the Bengals have.

The reality is the Benglas have had many top picks due to their poor showings during the season---yet where's these all these great players as a result of the draft people talk about?
We've never drafted well.
AJ was a no brainer.
Wrong, we have had some good drafts. Problem is that the players aren't dumb, know what a shabby ran franchise this is and hit the door first chance they get. It's not all about the money.
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  #27  
Old 11-06-2012, 09:02 AM
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Wrong, we have had some good drafts. Problem is that the players aren't dumb, know what a shabby ran franchise this is and hit the door first chance they get. It's not all about the money.
I get your point. And there is truth to that.

However:
Please tell me how the Benglas have drafted better than the average NFL team during the last ten years?

We have drafted about 70 players during that time (if someone can give me the actual number) so please tell me , or show me how the Benglas during that time drafted BETTER than the average NFL organization.

The point is--you can't.
If one looks at the numbers,,, players drafted by this orgaization during this time period have not fared better than the average NFL team.
Which means the Bengals drafts,even though they've had many high picks during this time--those players drafted have NOT fared as well as the average NFL team.

So can we put to rest this notion.
The proof is in the pudding.
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  #28  
Old 11-06-2012, 11:43 AM
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Default Re: Retaining our own drafted players

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Originally Posted by mulligan View Post
Shhh. This is our little secret.

But, when they left, they were free agent acquisitions for other teams.
So then if most of our drafted players aren't worth retaining when they become free agents...How is that a good thing?

It indicates extremely poor drafting!

We have 4 players on our roster that were drafted 5 or more years ago. That is horrible! This team lacks quality veteran players, because you know we aren't going to pay to bring in great veterans in free agency. We get guys like Newman that would be retired if we didn't sign them.
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  #29  
Old 11-06-2012, 11:47 AM
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Like Carson Palmer, for example. I totally "get" why he wanted out.
Well and Boomer Easiason was talking on TV about how Palmer's only chance at having a good career was to leave. He may have even counseled Palmer.

The ex-players know.

I was talking to Brian Simmons a couple years ago and he's now a scout with the Jaguars. Why not the Bengals?
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  #30  
Old 11-06-2012, 11:48 AM
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Can't say I do either. How many players have dogged Mike Brown over the years? Just imagine how many probably feel the same way but keep it to themselves.
The whole Carl Pickens clause was a joke.

Instead of fixing the organization and winning, the Bengals put a clause in contracts that players can't speak out against the team.
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  #31  
Old 11-06-2012, 12:36 PM
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Default Re: Retaining our own drafted players

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The whole Carl Pickens clause was a joke.

Instead of fixing the organization and winning, the Bengals put a clause in contracts that players can't speak out against the team.
Every great player we've had during the Mike Brown era has wanted out.

Boomer
Pickens
Dillon
Spikes
Chad
Carson

We've had a punter call out Mike Brown (Lee Johnson). A laundry list of players have had negative things to say about the franchise after they left. Most recently, Joseph commented on the cheapness of MB. So obviously nothing has changed.
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  #32  
Old 11-06-2012, 01:37 PM
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Default Re: Retaining our own drafted players

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Originally Posted by Shake n Blake View Post
Every great player we've had during the Mike Brown era has wanted out.

Boomer
Pickens
Dillon
Spikes
Chad
Carson

We've had a punter call out Mike Brown (Lee Johnson). A laundry list of players have had negative things to say about the franchise after they left. Most recently, Joseph commented on the cheapness of MB. So obviously nothing has changed.
And fans wonder why we don't have a ring of honor!!!

The best players for the Bengals get villafied.

I hate to say it, but Green has a good chance of being in that group if he stays here.
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  #33  
Old 11-06-2012, 02:17 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

I don't know how much of it is bad talent, and how much of it is bad coaching. I'm leaning toward the latter because of our draft rankings among the experts. In my view, Sanu and Jones should have been starting from Day 1. Let Hawkins be our #4 guy. Also, Still and Thompson are better than "Me So Happy" Peko.

I don't think we let our young guys get enough playing time, and we generally stink at developing talent.
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  #34  
Old 11-06-2012, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Shady View Post
I don't know how much of it is bad talent, and how much of it is bad coaching. I'm leaning toward the latter because of our draft rankings among the experts. In my view, Sanu and Jones should have been starting from Day 1. Let Hawkins be our #4 guy. Also, Still and Thompson are better than "Me So Happy" Peko.

I don't think we let our young guys get enough playing time, and we generally stink at developing talent.
If the experts were such great talent evaluators, they would be GM's making millions for some team.

Generally, if you can bring in a bunch of rookies that are better than your current roster players...you have issues somewhere.
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  #35  
Old 11-06-2012, 02:46 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

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If the experts were such great talent evaluators, they would be GM's making millions for some team.

Generally, if you can bring in a bunch of rookies that are better than your current roster players...you have issues somewhere.
True, but if you don't develop the talent you have, then it does it really matter who you draft? Name one player who came to us as a very raw prospect that we've developed into a top or even a middle-tier talent? Burfict might be one. We'll have to see.
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  #36  
Old 11-06-2012, 02:52 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

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Originally Posted by Shady View Post
I don't know how much of it is bad talent, and how much of it is bad coaching. I'm leaning toward the latter because of our draft rankings among the experts. In my view, Sanu and Jones should have been starting from Day 1. Let Hawkins be our #4 guy. Also, Still and Thompson are better than "Me So Happy" Peko.

I don't think we let our young guys get enough playing time, and we generally stink at developing talent.
http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/11/5...ver/in/3362377

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/11/5...unt/in/3362377

This is bunk.

UDFA Robinson got the start on Sunday and was pulled only after getting hurt.
UDFA Burfict has started several games.
UDFA Emmanuel Lamur had 24% of the snaps yesterday.
Hawkins is a 2nd year player and had 75% of the snaps.
Devon Still had 44% of the snaps.

BTW, when Peko got knicked up yesterday and left the field, Denver had its longest rush of 12 yards. Coincidence? Probably not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NFL_Draft
Tell me which 1st round WR has been productive this year. You are expecting Marvin Jones (5th) & Sanu (3rd) to be more productive than Floyd & Blackmon? Ridiculous.
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  #37  
Old 11-06-2012, 02:55 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

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Originally Posted by Shady View Post
True, but if you don't develop the talent you have, then it does it really matter who you draft? Name one player who came to us as a very raw prospect that we've developed into a top or even a middle-tier talent? Burfict might be one. We'll have to see.
How did Chad Johnson fair after leaving the Bengals? TJ Housh? Stacey Andrews? Andre Caldwell hasn't even been activated all the games this year.

Conversely, Jacksonville gave up on Reggie Nelson. It seems to me that he has been a very good football player for us. Same with Crocker (though he is unpopular on these boards).

Is Simpson ripping it up on the Vikings? Or Keith Rivers making us look the fool?
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  #38  
Old 11-06-2012, 03:00 PM
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Default Re: Retaining our own drafted players

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Originally Posted by THE PISTONS View Post
So then if most of our drafted players aren't worth retaining when they become free agents...How is that a good thing?

It indicates extremely poor drafting!

We have 4 players on our roster that were drafted 5 or more years ago. That is horrible! This team lacks quality veteran players, because you know we aren't going to pay to bring in great veterans in free agency. We get guys like Newman that would be retired if we didn't sign them.
Yes, you have nailed it, but haven't really pointed out anything that we didn't already know.

Our drafts in 2003, 2004, 2005 (train wreck), & 2006 were okay or worse.

Our drafts in 2010, 2011, 2012 have been great.

2009 was okay.
2008 was reactionary to Chad's threat to leave (drafting 3 WRs in 2nd Simpson, 3rd Caldwell, & 7th Urrutia).
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  #39  
Old 11-06-2012, 03:00 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

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How did Chad Johnson fair after leaving the Bengals? TJ Housh? Stacey Andrews? Andre Caldwell hasn't even been activated all the games this year.

Conversely, Jacksonville gave up on Reggie Nelson. It seems to me that he has been a very good football player for us. Same with Crocker (though he is unpopular on these boards).

Is Simpson ripping it up on the Vikings? Or Keith Rivers making us look the fool?
How old was Chad when he left here?

TJ feasted on D's trying to cover Chad.

Andrews turned to mess before he left us.

Caldwell blew when he was here.

Nelson and Crocker did well with Kevin Coyle; I grant you that, but I still think we draft good players but don't develop them properly. Or maybe it's just the terrible play calling in the case of offensive players.
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  #40  
Old 11-06-2012, 03:05 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

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How old was Chad when he left here?

TJ feasted on D's trying to cover Chad.

Andrews turned to mess before he left us.

Caldwell blew when he was here.

Nelson and Crocker did well with Kevin Coyle; I grant you that, but I still think we draft good players but don't develop them properly. Or maybe it's just the terrible play calling in the case of offensive players.
Chad was old when he left. But did ZERO in New England. New England did give us two late round draft picks for Chad, so evidently, they felt there was some value there.

TJ's results on Baltimore were very modest even with Torey Smith and Anquan Boldin in the mix.

Caldwell was bad here. And he hasn't been better elsewhere.

Joseph was great here and has been great in Texas.

I don't think there is any conclusive evidence to state that the Bengals are better or worse in developing talent.
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  #41  
Old 11-06-2012, 03:10 PM
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Chad was old when he left. But did ZERO in New England. New England did give us two late round draft picks for Chad, so evidently, they felt there was some value there.

TJ's results on Baltimore were very modest even with Torey Smith and Anquan Boldin in the mix.

Caldwell was bad here. And he hasn't been better elsewhere.

Joseph was great here and has been great in Texas.

I don't think there is any conclusive evidence to state that the Bengals are better or worse in developing talent.
Every team has good drafts and bad drafts, I suppose. I'm not debating that. And it might not be a problem of talent development.

Maybe it really is a problem of terrible (non-existent?) game planning and terrible play-calling. I'm just ****** off at these coaches right now, which means I'm in a mood to blame anything and everything.
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  #42  
Old 11-06-2012, 03:23 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

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Every team has good drafts and bad drafts, I suppose. I'm not debating that. And it might not be a problem of talent development.

Maybe it really is a problem of terrible (non-existent?) game planning and terrible play-calling. I'm just ****** off at these coaches right now, which means I'm in a mood to blame anything and everything.
This is evident.

I understand (and feel) frustrated myself. I want the Bengals to be better.

Am I surprised that they lost to Peyton Manning? No. I am disappointed. In my view, this was a close game. Ravens? No. Steelers? No. We weren't blown out. Would I be surprised if they lost to the Giants? No. Again, disappointed.

I am disgusted that they lost to the Dolphins and the Browns. Had they won these games, then the Bengals would be 5-3. Yes, the Bengals still wouldn't have beaten a good team, but at least they would have proven that they could be bad teams.

I really wouldn't say that it is bad play calling or game planning. People try to find "one thing" that could be changed. And I just don't think it is one thing.

To me, I get more disgusted with execution (players) than the other stuff (including coaches, game plan, etc).

I am a bit disgusted that Dre Kirk didn't get 1 defensive snap. This doesn't make any sense to me.

I am disgusted that Peko got knicked up and our run defense semi-imploded. Perhaps we do need Sims back while Still/Thompson get up-to-speed.

I am disgusted that Andre got handled on Sunday. WTS, Gresham was running more routes. Was Andre's struggles a function of Gresham not staying into assist in blocking?

Perhaps last year was the Bengals over-performing. And this year reflects that the Bengals are truly re-building.
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  #43  
Old 11-06-2012, 03:28 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

Players that have had more success after they left the Bengals that were drafted in the last 10 years or so include:

Justin Smith (Starter)
Ahmad Brooks (Starter)
Matt Toeania (Starter)
Corey Lynch (Nickel Safety)
Kelley Washington
Matt Schobel
Madieu Williams (Nickel Safety)
Clinton McDonald (Rotational DT that sees a lot of snaps)
Dez Brisoce (4th WR)

Thats not a lot of players since 2001.
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  #44  
Old 11-06-2012, 03:30 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

Fun thread.

Every draft, you hear people say, he will be the starter for the next 10 years. The Bengals do not have any of those. Geathers is as close as it gets, and he is a rotational guy who at 8 years, is in the twilight of his career and fading fast.

Here is a great article on the topic:

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/pos...than-you-think

It’s easy language, a common phrase.

But when Colts president Bill Polian talks about the NFL draft, he catches himself when he calls it an “inexact science.”

“It’s not a science,” he said, correcting himself. “It’s data collection and then making judgment based on that data collection. That isn’t science. It’s far more art than science.”

It’s art with a batting average, a hit percentage that’s actually far lower for even the most successful decision-makers than most fans expect. Typically, it can’t be accurately computed for three years -- a long time to wait to see if the line drive in the gap bounces to extend a rally or is caught to end an inning.

“The conventional wisdom, if you would, is completely wrong when you look at the empirical evidence,” Polian said.

Said Titans general manager Mike Reinfeldt: “If you take all the percentages, forget the weighting of the round and say, 'OK, what’s the chance of any player being a hit?' It’s 40 percent, 39 percent. I would think fans would think it’d be much higher.”

So what's a good success rate in the draft? A first-round flub and a seventh-round miss are weighted differently, of course. But smash all of it together, and what's a good percentage of hits versus misses?

Polian and Reinfeldt were kind enough to consider the question this week.

Here’s Polian’s formula:


BILL POLIAN BY HIS FORMULA
For some contributors I could not rank fully as "winning players" I cheated and rated them as "half successes." Doing so and giving the Colts an extra draft slot and winning player for each successful undrafted rookie, here's what I came up with for the three most recent ratable years. The Colts picked in the bottom 20 in all of these drafts, where Polian expects a success rate of .570.

Year Hits and Players Success Rate
2006 5 of 7 .714
2007 4.5 of 11 .409
2008 6.5 of 11 .590

“I think you have to divide it into top 12 and bottom 20. If you’re in the top 12, it ought to be in the .640 range. That’s about 4.5 guys on average per year out of the seven. You measure that at the end of three years and what you are measuring is whether or not those guys become winning players, guys that contribute to wins. Bottom 20 is .571, that’s four out of seven…

“You either make it or you don’t. We’ve been above the .570 mark when you count collegiate free agents like Melvin Bullitt who come in and play, and they count. So we’ve been above the .570 mark. This past year we could get close to the .640 mark drafting 31st but it’s early.” [See box for my breakdown.]

A quick sidenote: Adding a successful undrafted rookie free agent to the total serves to artificially inflate the numbers. Polian can hit on one or two of a group of 12 or 15 and boost his average. But the Colts have the luxury of running systems where they are more likely to find undrafted players who can cut it. It's part of their building strategy and they can count it how they like.

Reinfeldt has different ways of judging his selections and the work of his scouting and coaching staffs and measuring it against the rest of the league.

"If you look historically, teams get 2.3 starters per draft and as a team, I think you need to strive to get three starters per draft, or I should say players worthy of starting. Is Jared Cook a starter? Not really but he’s good enough to be a starter in certain situations. Are Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty? Well, in the right situation, probably."

Getting three starting-worthy players in a seven-pick draft would amount to a .429 hit rate. Reinfeldt joined the Titans in 2007. I score the Titans’ 2007 draft at .300 and 2008 draft at .572 -- a combined .412.

Reinfeldt also looked at a second method for evaluating draft success that combines a number of different factors.

Judging productive players or players who have NFL-caliber traits over the last five or six years, he sees a .560 hit percentage for the first and second rounds; .350 for the third, fourth and fifth rounds; and .333 for the sixth and seventh rounds.

“The hit becomes a little bit easier to define there,” he said. “A guy could be a good role player there and be a hit [based on where he was taken].”
Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt said the benchmark for a successful draft is getting at least three starters.Polian and Reinfeldt understand that misses are just a part of the job. There is no getting around the fact that the Titans’ second-round running back Chris Henry from 2007 was a bust or that the Colts didn’t find the long-term left tackle solution they needed with Tony Ugoh earlier in the same round of the same draft.

“Even in the first two rounds, you’re going to miss 44 percent of the time,” Reinfeldt said. “… It’s a tough business. There is a lot of exposure to it. I think you need to be realistic and compare historically to what other clubs have done.”

Said Polian: “There is a lot of luck involved. I drafted players I swore would be really good players that have gotten hurt and never achieved a thing in the league through no fault of their own. In the end, they wash out and sometimes you don’t make the numbers because of that.”

Polian and the Colts came to their numbers by studying all drafts and rating every team’s success. They use an independent service to verify a hit or miss in Jacksonville or St. Louis, though sometimes the team’s opinion will differ from the service, in which case Polian will defer to his own scouting information.

The Colts judge a draft pick elsewhere on how he fills the role he’s asked to in his team’s system, and sometimes Indianapolis’ verdict may differ from that of the team he plays for.

The numbers have stayed pretty much the same for 25 years, he said.

While Polian wants to measure how the Colts and the league are doing, he said he doesn’t allow himself to get caught up in the numbers or push to improve the hit rate.

“The numbers are just a metric, you don’t ever want to try to reach for a metric any more than you would try to reach for a player,” he said. “That’s a measurement of how well you’ve done. If you haven’t done well -- and we haven’t historically, as you know, in the third round since we’ve been here -- then you go back and take a look and say, ‘Why haven’t we? What are we doing that we shouldn’t be doing? Who are we missing here?’

“Do you judge yourself harshly? The answer is yes. The guy either is a winning player or he’s not.”
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  #45  
Old 11-06-2012, 03:49 PM
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Default Re: Retaining our own drafted players

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Our drafts in 2010, 2011, 2012 have been great.

.
Really?
We finished sooo poorly that we got AJ, which was a no brainer----other than that, what makes these three drafts so much better than anyone else in the league?

(i can't wait to see the answer to this one)
OSU--I ask you the same thing.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:50 PM
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here's how the great Mel Kiper..er..ha... ranked our drafts the last 4 years

2012...A-
2011...A-
2010...C
2009...B


If there is a silver lining...he does like our most current drafts.
I really think the team did do a better job starting in '09. But before that, it was REALLY bad.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:00 PM
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Default Re: Have our drafts really been that good?

I did a comparison of the Bengals drafts since 2001 to the Steelers and Patriots drafts since 2001.

What I found was that the Steelers and Patriots miss on just as many draft picks as the Bengals.

What I also found out is that the quality of guys the Steelers and Patriots hit on is VERY MUCH better than the Bengals.

You can directly correlate that to both scouting and coaching.

Both are far better for the Steelers and Patriots.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:04 PM
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I did a comparison of the Bengals drafts since 2001 to the Steelers and Patriots drafts since 2001.

What I found was that the Steelers and Patriots miss on just as many draft picks as the Bengals.

What I also found out is that the quality of guys the Steelers and Patriots hit on is VERY MUCH better than the Bengals.

You can directly correlate that to both scouting and coaching.

Both are far better for the Steelers and Patriots.
I am interested in learning more about your findings. Details?
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  #49  
Old 11-06-2012, 04:07 PM
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Right on McC !

A lot of peeps holler we messed up not keeping JJ, it's just speculation on my part, but I believe Joseph had next to zero intent to stay at nearly any price !
I don't thinks so. He even said he would not mind getting the Tag. I think MB was assuming nobody would want him because of his injury history, and he would come crawling back for a nice low ball offer.

The reality is that this team cannot to affor to let anybody who is at least average leave. There are not enough NFL quality players to take their spot.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:14 PM
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http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/11/5...ver/in/3362377

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/11/5...unt/in/3362377

This is bunk.

UDFA Robinson got the start on Sunday and was pulled only after getting hurt.
UDFA Burfict has started several games.
UDFA Emmanuel Lamur had 24% of the snaps yesterday.
Hawkins is a 2nd year player and had 75% of the snaps.
Devon Still had 44% of the snaps.

BTW, when Peko got knicked up yesterday and left the field, Denver had its longest rush of 12 yards. Coincidence? Probably not.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NFL_Draft
Tell me which 1st round WR has been productive this year. You are expecting Marvin Jones (5th) & Sanu (3rd) to be more productive than Floyd & Blackmon? Ridiculous.
Agreed. The only ridiculous part is that the organization was counting on these guys to be productive rookies. They needed a vet and did not get squat.
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