Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

[Shake n Blake]

Throws of 41+ yards (passer rating in parenthesis)

1. Schaub- 3-4-164-2-0 (156.3)
2. Brees- 4-6-223-2-0 (149.3)
3. Stafford- 6-11-303-2-0 (139.2)
4. Rapist- 3-9-179-2-0 (121.5)
5. Foles- 1-3-44-1-0 (121.5)
6. Griffin- 4-13-246-4-0 (119.4)
7. Bradford- 2-8-101-2-0 (118.8)
8. Weeden- 1-6-62-1-0 (109.7)
9. Hasselbeck- 1-6-30-1-0 (87.5)
10. A.Smith- 1-3-55-0-0 (81.9)
Newton- 4-12-206-0-0 (81.9)
12. Dalton- 2-7-105-1-1 (79.2)
Palmer- 1-4-58-0-0 (79.2)
14. Cutler- 2-8-98-1-1 (78.1)
15. Flacco- 2-16-99-1-0 (73.7)
16. Ryan- 3-10-157-1-1 (72.9)
17. Wilson- 3-11-147-1-3 (69.9)
18. Freeman- 3-12-159-1-2 (67.4)
19. Luck- 2-12-90-1-2 (46.5)
20. Ponder- 1-3-54-0-1 (42.4)
21. Brady- 0-6-0-0-0 (39.6)
Peyton- 0-1-0-0-0 (39.6)
Eli- 0-2-0-0-0 (39.6)
Fitzp- 0-4-0-0-0 (39.6)
Cassel- 0-1-0-0-0 (39.6)
Tannehill- 0-2-0-0-0 (39.6)
Gabbert- 0-2-0-0-0 (39.6)
Henne- 0-1-0-0-0 (39.6)
29. Romo- 2-12-114-0-2 (27.1)
30. Vick- 2-12-95-0-1 (25.3)
31. Rodgers- 1-6-52-0-1 (23.6)
32. Rivers- 0-4-0-0-1 (0.0)
Sanchez- 0-5-0-0-1 (0.0)
Locker- 0-5-0-0-2 (0.0)

Completion % on throws over 20 yards

1. A.Smith- 47.1%
2. Ryan- 44.4%
3. Hasselbeck- 43.9%
4. Griffin- 41.9%
5. Brees- 41.4%
6. Peyton- 39.7%
7. Rodgers- 39.6%
Newton- 39.6%
9. Eli- 37.7%
10. Freeman- 36.9%
11. Locker- 36.5%
12. Wilson- 34.0%
13. Brady- 33.3%
Tannehill- 33.3%
15. Schaub- 32.6%
Sanchez- 32.6%
17. Flacco- 32.5%
18. Luck- 31.3%
19. Rivers- 31.3%
20. Bradford- 30.9%
21. Henne- 29.4%
Cassel- 29.4%
23. Cutler- 28.8%
Romo- 28.8%
Stafford- 28.8%
26. Vick- 25.6%
27. Dalton- 25.0%
Gabbert- 25.0%
29. Palmer- 22.4%
30. Foles- 22.2%
31. Roeth- 21.6%
Weeden- 21.6%
33. Fitzp- 21.4%
34. Ponder- 16.7%

Notes:

- In 2011, Dalton completed 42.9% of his throws over 20 yards. That would've been the 4th best % this year.

- Why did Dalton's completion % on 21+ yard throws drop from 42.9% last year to 25.0% this year? Perhaps because Jerome Simpson > Binns/Tate/Jones?

- In 2011, Dalton went 3-6-131-2-1 (95.8 passer rating) on throws of 41+ yards. So for his career, he is 5-13-236-3-2 on long bombs, which is very good when compared to his peers.

- Only qualifying QBs were included.

I think these numbers prove that Andy does not have a problem with deep throws. Especially when you look at his % from last year which was outstanding. The difference is obvious. Simpson was a legit #2 that teams had to respect. This year, we've had 4 different #2 wr's, and only one of them made any sort of impact.

[BengalsRocker]

Not trying to be negative here. Just wondering...

Do these numbers count into effect yards after catch?

There are at least two I can think of Hawkins and Gresham that YAC might throw off the deep ball numbers in Dalton's benefit.

Again, I'm not being negative. Just pointing something out and asking Shake a question.

[Shake n Blake]

Originally Posted by BengalsRocker

Not trying to be negative here. Just wondering...

Do these numbers count into effect yards after catch?

There are at least two I can think of Hawkins and Gresham that YAC might throw off the deep ball numbers in Dalton's benefit.

Again, I'm not being negative. Just pointing something out and asking Shake a question.

I'm 99% certain these are just throws that traveled that far. No YAC. Otherwise, Peyton would have more than just 1 40+ yard attempt. I'm sure Peyton has a few touchdowns that went longer than 40 yards thanks to YAC, but these stats show him with no completions on 40+ yard throws.

Also, Tom Brady is 0 for 6 on 41+ yard throws. I know for a fact that Brady gets tons of YAC from his receivers and has a few long TDs this year from YAC. So this is definitely going off the distance the throws traveled.

[BengalsRocker]

Originally Posted by Shake n Blake

I'm 99% certain these are just throws that traveled that far. No YAC. Otherwise, Peyton would have more than just 1 40+ yard attempt. I'm sure Peyton has a few touchdowns that went longer than 40 yards thanks to YAC, but these stats show him with no completions on 40+ yard throws.

Okay, thanks. I just thought I'd ask a valid question.

[Dan_The_Bengals_Fan]

Well he did have a legitimate #2(kinda) for the whole season last year, he only had a good #2 for two games this season, and he looked great in both of them.

[ibengals]

Seeing as Green is the only deep threat, and he's usually got the safety over top, this isn't really a surprise. We need someone who can get deep besides Green.

[Go Cards]

Not sure what these #'s say. I mean Alex Smith would average out as the 5th best QB in the NFL with these #'s, and he is now 2nd string on his own team. .

[CornerBlitz]

All these numbers show me is that his deep ball has been inferior this season. That is pretty sad considering he has AJ Green to throw to.

With that said, i agree he doesn't have a legit #2. Is that the reason why his numbers have dipped? Who knows......

[Shake n Blake]

Originally Posted by CornerBlitz

All these numbers show me is that his deep ball has been inferior this season. That is pretty sad considering he has AJ Green to throw to.

With that said, i agree he doesn't have a legit #2. Is that the reason why his numbers have dipped? Who knows......

Think about it, CB. What sounds more legit? That Dalton's suddenly lost the ability to throw the deep ball? Or that AJ is seeing way more coverage because teams have not respected Binns/Tate/Jones like they did Simpson?

[victor24]

Originally Posted by Shake n Blake

Throws of 41+ yards (passer rating in parenthesis)

1. Schaub- 3-4-164-2-0 (156.3)
2. Brees- 4-6-223-2-0 (149.3)
3. Stafford- 6-11-303-2-0 (139.2)
4. Rapist- 3-9-179-2-0 (121.5)
5. Foles- 1-3-44-1-0 (121.5)
6. Griffin- 4-13-246-4-0 (119.4)
7. Bradford- 2-8-101-2-0 (118.8)
8. Weeden- 1-6-62-1-0 (109.7)
9. Hasselbeck- 1-6-30-1-0 (87.5)
10. A.Smith- 1-3-55-0-0 (81.9)
Newton- 4-12-206-0-0 (81.9)
12. Dalton- 2-7-105-1-1 (79.2)
Palmer- 1-4-58-0-0 (79.2)
14. Cutler- 2-8-98-1-1 (78.1)
15. Flacco- 2-16-99-1-0 (73.7)
16. Ryan- 3-10-157-1-1 (72.9)
17. Wilson- 3-11-147-1-3 (69.9)
18. Freeman- 3-12-159-1-2 (67.4)
19. Luck- 2-12-90-1-2 (46.5)
20. Ponder- 1-3-54-0-1 (42.4)
21. Brady- 0-6-0-0-0 (39.6)
Peyton- 0-1-0-0-0 (39.6)
Eli- 0-2-0-0-0 (39.6)
Fitzp- 0-4-0-0-0 (39.6)
Cassel- 0-1-0-0-0 (39.6)
Tannehill- 0-2-0-0-0 (39.6)
Gabbert- 0-2-0-0-0 (39.6)
Henne- 0-1-0-0-0 (39.6)
29. Romo- 2-12-114-0-2 (27.1)
30. Vick- 2-12-95-0-1 (25.3)
31. Rodgers- 1-6-52-0-1 (23.6)
32. Rivers- 0-4-0-0-1 (0.0)
Sanchez- 0-5-0-0-1 (0.0)
Locker- 0-5-0-0-2 (0.0)

Completion % on throws over 20 yards

1. A.Smith- 47.1%
2. Ryan- 44.4%
3. Hasselbeck- 43.9%
4. Griffin- 41.9%
5. Brees- 41.4%
6. Peyton- 39.7%
7. Rodgers- 39.6%
Newton- 39.6%
9. Eli- 37.7%
10. Freeman- 36.9%
11. Locker- 36.5%
12. Wilson- 34.0%
13. Brady- 33.3%
Tannehill- 33.3%
15. Schaub- 32.6%
Sanchez- 32.6%
17. Flacco- 32.5%
18. Luck- 31.3%
19. Rivers- 31.3%
20. Bradford- 30.9%
21. Henne- 29.4%
Cassel- 29.4%
23. Cutler- 28.8%
Romo- 28.8%
Stafford- 28.8%
26. Vick- 25.6%
27. Dalton- 25.0%
Gabbert- 25.0%
29. Palmer- 22.4%
30. Foles- 22.2%
31. Roeth- 21.6%
Weeden- 21.6%
33. Fitzp- 21.4%
34. Ponder- 16.7%

Notes:

- In 2011, Dalton completed 42.9% of his throws over 20 yards. That would've been the 4th best % this year.

- Why did Dalton's completion % on 21+ yard throws drop from 42.9% last year to 25.0% this year? Perhaps because Jerome Simpson > Binns/Tate/Jones?

- In 2011, Dalton went 3-6-131-2-1 (95.8 passer rating) on throws of 41+ yards. So for his career, he is 5-13-236-3-2 on long bombs, which is very good when compared to his peers.

- Only qualifying QBs were included.

I think these numbers prove that Andy does not have a problem with deep throws. Especially when you look at his % from last year which was outstanding. The difference is obvious. Simpson was a legit #2 that teams had to respect. This year, we've had 4 different #2 wr's, and only one of them made any sort of impact.

Hmmm? I guess that offensive line issues (especially the Interior: G/C where stepping into deep passes become difficult) doesn't figure into your calculations. I feel that a lot has improved, but obviously there's still room for growth and coordination with the Center(s) and Guards. I kinda liked J. Simpson, while he was here, but I don't feel that his going has anywhere near the effect as the very, very, very young (but talented) interior linemen has had on Dalton's deep passes. QBs must be able to step into their long ball throws. When Andy has been in the pocket, that is often times a problem.

[Shake n Blake]

Originally Posted by Go Cards

Not sure what these #'s say. I mean Alex Smith would average out as the 5th best QB in the NFL with these #'s, and he is now 2nd string on his own team. .

These numbers tell me that fans make way too big a deal about deep throws and arm strength. Brady is pretty weak on long throws. Big Ben is terrible on them. But I'm pretty sure I'd take either of those guys over Alex Smith.

[Shake n Blake]

Originally Posted by victor24

Hmmm? I guess that offensive line issues (especially the Interior: G/C where stepping into deep passes become difficult) doesn't figure into your calculations. I feel that a lot has improved, but obviously there's still room for growth and coordination with the Center(s) and Guards. I kinda liked J. Simpson, while he was here, but I don't feel that his going has anywhere near the effect as the very, very, very young (but talented) interior linemen has had on Dalton's deep passes. QBs must be able to step into their long ball throws. When Andy has been in the pocket, that is often times a problem.

That could certainly play into it as well. All I'm saying is that Dalton has shown he has the ability. Having 3 different centers and 4 different #2 WRs has not helped.

[jack1953]

Originally Posted by ibengals

Seeing as Green is the only deep threat, and he's usually got the safety over top, this isn't really a surprise. We need someone who can get deep besides Green.

+1 I believe that will be Sanu.

[Slappy from New Haven]

Originally Posted by ibengals

Seeing as Green is the only deep threat, and he's usually got the safety over top, this isn't really a surprise. We need someone who can get deep besides Green.

Keep an eye on jones, he has the speed and they went deep to him last week.

It's coming, be patient

[redsrule2500]

small sample size

[D's Nuts and Bolts]

Originally Posted by NC Bengal Mike

Keep an eye on jones, he has the speed and they went deep to him last week.

It's coming, be patient

Yes, It took Jerome 3 years to even be active in games. In three years Marvin Jones/Sanu will be established WR's. Thier future so bright they gotta where shades!


Since the OAK game AJ has not caught a ball longer then 21 yards. Andy hasn't connected on a pass longer then 25 yards since then.

Teams have figured out how to take that away. It takes a perfect throw and catch to connect now. It is up to the coaches to find away to fix that. Oh and Tom Brady doesn't have AJ freaking Green. When he had Moss he broke records.

[Goose]

Originally Posted by ibengals

Seeing as Green is the only deep threat, and he's usually got the safety over top, this isn't really a surprise. We need someone who can get deep besides Green.

Marvin Jones may be faster and is still getting his feet wet.

[CornerBlitz]

Originally Posted by Shake n Blake

Think about it, CB. What sounds more legit? That Dalton's suddenly lost the ability to throw the deep ball? Or that AJ is seeing way more coverage because teams have not respected Binns/Tate/Jones like they did Simpson?

Well the sample size is also quite small to actually have some concrete conclusions. I just think his overall deep ball game is very average at best and the numbers also would lead you to the same conclusion. Yes there are certain things around him that could be upgraded, but you could say that for almost any team.

[Joelist]

The bad interior pass blocking and the lack of a reliable #2 WR both impact deep passing. With the issues we are having pass blocking up the middle the nose of the pocket is being pushed in - nowhere for the QB to step up into the throw. The lack of a reliable #2 WR means AJ gets bracketed with tight coverage which makes deep completions much harder.

Football stats are always hard to completely interpret because the nature of the game is one of 11 players on the field whose job are all interrelated.

[old man]

Originally Posted by Shake n Blake

These numbers tell me that fans make way too big a deal about deep throws and arm strength. Brady is pretty weak on long throws. Big Ben is terrible on them. But I'm pretty sure I'd take either of those guys over Alex Smith.

Don't get me wrong Shake, I can't stand the ground Rothlesberger walks on, but that 60 yarder he threw last week looked like alot more air than run.

[old man]

Tell me if I'm not understanding this right. I thought Andy was a " west coast " style QB. Is'nt west coast short over the middle, flares out to backs out in the flat, 10 yards outs, 10 yards hook patterns. You know dink and dunk. I don't think Andy can be accrute because he's trying to throw the ball to hard. Like a pitcher trying to throw faster than he can, over throwing.

[Ryan Mc]

Originally Posted by Shake n Blake

Think about it, CB. What sounds more legit? That Dalton's suddenly lost the ability to throw the deep ball? Or that AJ is seeing way more coverage because teams have not respected Binns/Tate/Jones like they did Simpson?

Andy didn't suddenly lose the ability to throw the deep ball ... his accuracy on the deep ball was an issue in 2011 and has continued to be an issue in 2012. Even Gruden acknowledged in the offseason that accuracy on the deep ball was the primary thing Dalton needed to work on, and has continued to note Andy's struggles in this area (can't be bothered to search extensively, but for example here: http://www.bengals.com/news/article-...0-8a69293b8059 ... Gruden still needs Dalton to improve his deep-ball accuracy, pointing out one overthrow and one out of bounds when Green had his defender beat). It's hard to see that these numbers, which document the results of a grand total of 13 passes of 41+ yards that Dalton has thrown in his career, "prove" anything.

PS Please don't anybody be tempted to respond with dumb replies about me being a "hater" or any nonsense like that. I think Dalton is a very good young QB and consider us extremely lucky to have gotten such a relatively polished QB so soon after Carson ditching the team. But, I hope we can still discuss his game intelligently, and there should be no question that Andy's accuracy on the deep ball needs work. At least our coaches see it and recognize it needs work, even if some people on these boards can't.

PPS I should also add, to be more specific, that Andy's accuracy issues are when throwing to the sideline. One difference between 2011 and this season is that I can remember a few bombs connected to AJ right down the middle of the field to the post last year (TD versus Pitt, long completions versus Texans and Rams), while I can't remember any this season. Seems like all our deep shots this year have been up the sideline rather than to the post, which might account for why Andy's numbers are down compared to 2011.

[XenoMorph]

Originally Posted by jack1953

+1 I believe that will be Sanu.

Sanu will be our Possession Receiver allowing Green and M Jones to work the deep routes.

Having all 3 Green Sanu and Jones playing at the same time should improve the overall passing game for Dalton.

Also improving the consistancy of the Run game will help the Play Action to give the Deep routes time to develope without andy facing pressure.

[XenoMorph]

Originally Posted by BengalsRocker

Not trying to be negative here. Just wondering...

Do these numbers count into effect yards after catch?

There are at least two I can think of Hawkins and Gresham that YAC might throw off the deep ball numbers in Dalton's benefit.

Again, I'm not being negative. Just pointing something out and asking Shake a question.

Last Year Dalton had a better Passer Rating on balls traveling more than 20 yards in the air than Tom Brady im not sure how the stats stack up this year as we really havent been utilizing the deep ball well this second half of the season.

[Mexal]

Originally Posted by Shake n Blake

Throws of 41+ yards (passer rating in parenthesis)

- In 2011, Dalton completed 42.9% of his throws over 20 yards. That would've been the 4th best % this year.

- Why did Dalton's completion % on 21+ yard throws drop from 42.9% last year to 25.0% this year? Perhaps because Jerome Simpson > Binns/Tate/Jones?

- In 2011, Dalton went 3-6-131-2-1 (95.8 passer rating) on throws of 41+ yards. So for his career, he is 5-13-236-3-2 on long bombs, which is very good when compared to his peers.

- Only qualifying QBs were included.

I think these numbers prove that Andy does not have a problem with deep throws. Especially when you look at his % from last year which was outstanding. The difference is obvious. Simpson was a legit #2 that teams had to respect. This year, we've had 4 different #2 wr's, and only one of them made any sort of impact.

I think the numbers show the opposite and if you watched the games, which I'm sure you have, you realize that Andy's diminished deep ball has absolutely nothing to do with a threat of #2. What a threat at #2 would do is open up Green to more opportunities but it won't change the fact that Dalton has thrown a very large majority of his deep passes too far or out of bounds. In 2011, the reason Dalton completed a higher percentage, was because he was under throwing them and Green was adjusting and making great catches. This didn't happen in 2012 at all. Seriously, when was the last time Dalton under threw Green this year?

Ultimately, the reason Dalton's deep ball has suffered is due to poor footwork. He doesn't step into his throws, plants his back foot after his initial drop and never resets his footwork before launching the pass. This results in less accuracy and more effort. When he steps into his throws, he's very accurate. The other bit that's been a problem is trajectory. He doesn't put enough air on the ball so it gets to the spot too fast which leads to an over throw and if you read his transcripts, you'll see that he agrees.