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  #26  
Old 12-28-2012, 05:27 PM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

[quote=Shake n Blake;2747168][u]Throws of 41+
- In 2011, Dalton completed 42.9% of his throws over 20 yards. That would've been the 4th best % this year.
- Why did Dalton's completion % on 21+ yard throws drop from 42.9% last year to 25.0% this year? Perhaps because Jerome Simpson > Binns/Tate/Jones?
- In 2011, Dalton went 3-6-131-2-1 (95.8 passer rating) on throws of 41+ yards. So for his career, he is 5-13-236-3-2 on long bombs, which is very good when compared to his peers.
I think these numbers prove that Andy does not have a problem with deep throws.



I like Andy as a person, his performance at QB I don't.
Shake, I think you're getting closer to a better way of grading a QB. Unfortuantly the above numbers do not include Andys "Achilles Heel, the None Throws to Wide Open WRs. (NTWOW). A personal stat he very well deserves. A prime example of why stats alone don't tell the whole story, exepecialy for a QB. All positive numbers have to be taken into consideration with the negative none throw's and etc. Yes, he's been playing two years and that's long enough when you consider he had a very long college career unlike a lot of QB's which is another reason I suspect Dalton has just about reach his peak performance.
Because he has much better players surrounding him this year his numbers should definitely go up a lot more than they have. Also we have a better defense this year allowing for a shorter playing field for Andy. All of his negative numbers have gone up as well, INT's, pick 6's, too many NONE throws to wide open WR's to count, sacks from improper use of the pocket and I could go on but no sense in beating a dead horse.
It's for these reasons I'm not impressed with Andys performance at all.
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  #27  
Old 12-28-2012, 07:41 PM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Originally Posted by Ryan Mc View Post
Andy didn't suddenly lose the ability to throw the deep ball ... his accuracy on the deep ball was an issue in 2011 and has continued to be an issue in 2012. Even Gruden acknowledged in the offseason that accuracy on the deep ball was the primary thing Dalton needed to work on, and has continued to note Andy's struggles in this area (can't be bothered to search extensively, but for example here: http://www.bengals.com/news/article-...0-8a69293b8059 ... Gruden still needs Dalton to improve his deep-ball accuracy, pointing out one overthrow and one out of bounds when Green had his defender beat). It's hard to see that these numbers, which document the results of a grand total of 13 passes of 41+ yards that Dalton has thrown in his career, "prove" anything.

PS Please don't anybody be tempted to respond with dumb replies about me being a "hater" or any nonsense like that. I think Dalton is a very good young QB and consider us extremely lucky to have gotten such a relatively polished QB so soon after Carson ditching the team. But, I hope we can still discuss his game intelligently, and there should be no question that Andy's accuracy on the deep ball needs work. At least our coaches see it and recognize it needs work, even if some people on these boards can't.

PPS I should also add, to be more specific, that Andy's accuracy issues are when throwing to the sideline. One difference between 2011 and this season is that I can remember a few bombs connected to AJ right down the middle of the field to the post last year (TD versus Pitt, long completions versus Texans and Rams), while I can't remember any this season. Seems like all our deep shots this year have been up the sideline rather than to the post, which might account for why Andy's numbers are down compared to 2011.
Actually these numbers document the results of the 44 passes that Dalton has thrown this year that went longer than 21 yards (not counting YAC), as well as a similar number of passes last year as well. Of course, I'm aware that no number will ever be good enough for you guys.

As for Gruden, him saying that Dalton still needs to improve on his deep throws is a bit different than the "he can't hit the broad side of a barn" stance you guys take. Btw, I liked these comments from Gruden:

"He's more confident. He's able to get us into good plays when the coverage dictates taking away a play that might be called and he's able to change it at the line and get us into a play that has a chance," Gruden said. "He's done a lot more this year than he had last year. We're giving him a lot more options at the line of scrimmage to make those changes and in the plays we don't change he's done a good job of executing and not forcing the ball into the coverage."

"I just think players around him are doing better," offensive coordinator Jay Gruden said. "I think your quarterback has success and when he has failures I think a lot of people put too much on him. Whether it's positive or negative. I think guys around him are doing a much better job."
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Last edited by Shake n Blake; 12-28-2012 at 07:51 PM.
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  #28  
Old 12-28-2012, 08:30 PM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Originally Posted by Shake n Blake View Post
Actually these numbers document the results of the 44 passes that Dalton has thrown this year that went longer than 21 yards (not counting YAC), as well as a similar number of passes last year as well. Of course, I'm aware that no number will ever be good enough for you guys.

As for Gruden, him saying that Dalton still needs to improve on his deep throws is a bit different than the "he can't hit the broad side of a barn" stance you guys take....
If you're going to quote my post then please don't include "you guys" comments that have nothing to do with me at all. I happen to think Dalton is a very talented young QB and am overjoyed to have him on the team I support. Don't have a tantrum because I include some criticisms of him ... nothing I've ever written about Dalton comes remotely close to suggesting he can't hit the broad side of a barn. He is not a perfect QB, and in particular has been sub-par with accuracy on deep sideline passes. Any reasonable, objective analysis of Dalton's game would draw that conclusion.
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  #29  
Old 12-28-2012, 08:50 PM
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bengals Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

[quote=Hammerthis;2747918]
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Originally Posted by Shake n Blake View Post
[u]Throws of 41+
- In 2011, Dalton completed 42.9% of his throws over 20 yards. That would've been the 4th best % this year.
- Why did Dalton's completion % on 21+ yard throws drop from 42.9% last year to 25.0% this year? Perhaps because Jerome Simpson > Binns/Tate/Jones?
- In 2011, Dalton went 3-6-131-2-1 (95.8 passer rating) on throws of 41+ yards. So for his career, he is 5-13-236-3-2 on long bombs, which is very good when compared to his peers.
I think these numbers prove that Andy does not have a problem with deep throws.



I like Andy as a person, his performance at QB I don't.
Shake, I think you're getting closer to a better way of grading a QB. Unfortuantly the above numbers do not include Andys "Achilles Heel, the None Throws to Wide Open WRs. (NTWOW). A personal stat he very well deserves. A prime example of why stats alone don't tell the whole story, exepecialy for a QB. All positive numbers have to be taken into consideration with the negative none throw's and etc. Yes, he's been playing two years and that's long enough when you consider he had a very long college career unlike a lot of QB's which is another reason I suspect Dalton has just about reach his peak performance.
Because he has much better players surrounding him this year his numbers should definitely go up a lot more than they have. Also we have a better defense this year allowing for a shorter playing field for Andy. All of his negative numbers have gone up as well, INT's, pick 6's, too many NONE throws to wide open WR's to count, sacks from improper use of the pocket and I could go on but no sense in beating a dead horse.
It's for these reasons I'm not impressed with Andys performance at all.
I have finally figured it out. Hammer is actually Carson.

Seriously man get off Andy's A. $. $. No two years at the NFL level is not enough to be at Brady or Manning level. His collegiate career has squat to do with it. Manning had a long collegiate career and Andy's are on pace with his for his second season. Just admit you dislike him for no valid reason.
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  #30  
Old 12-28-2012, 09:33 PM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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I think the numbers show the opposite and if you watched the games, which I'm sure you have, you realize that Andy's diminished deep ball has absolutely nothing to do with a threat of #2. What a threat at #2 would do is open up Green to more opportunities but it won't change the fact that Dalton has thrown a very large majority of his deep passes too far or out of bounds. In 2011, the reason Dalton completed a higher percentage, was because he was under throwing them and Green was adjusting and making great catches. This didn't happen in 2012 at all. Seriously, when was the last time Dalton under threw Green this year?

Ultimately, the reason Dalton's deep ball has suffered is due to poor footwork. He doesn't step into his throws, plants his back foot after his initial drop and never resets his footwork before launching the pass. This results in less accuracy and more effort. When he steps into his throws, he's very accurate. The other bit that's been a problem is trajectory. He doesn't put enough air on the ball so it gets to the spot too fast which leads to an over throw and if you read his transcripts, you'll see that he agrees.
I think there's a lot of truth here especially in your 2nd paragraph. Moreover I believe this footwork leads into Andy's biggest problem, some might call it "happy feet" in the pocket. He senses pressure that isn't there at times. Other times he doesn't pick it up until it's to late. His "pocket presence" just isn't quite up to snuff yet !
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  #31  
Old 12-29-2012, 01:13 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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+1 I believe that will be Sanu.
Sanu is not a deep threat.

He is a possession type of WR.

Jones is the only Deep Threat other than AJ Green.

When Jones finishes developing, Green and Jones will be as much of a Deep Threat as White and Jones is for Atlanta.
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  #32  
Old 12-29-2012, 01:17 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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I think the numbers show the opposite and if you watched the games, which I'm sure you have, you realize that Andy's diminished deep ball has absolutely nothing to do with a threat of #2. What a threat at #2 would do is open up Green to more opportunities but it won't change the fact that Dalton has thrown a very large majority of his deep passes too far or out of bounds. In 2011, the reason Dalton completed a higher percentage, was because he was under throwing them and Green was adjusting and making great catches. This didn't happen in 2012 at all. Seriously, when was the last time Dalton under threw Green this year?

Ultimately, the reason Dalton's deep ball has suffered is due to poor footwork. He doesn't step into his throws, plants his back foot after his initial drop and never resets his footwork before launching the pass. This results in less accuracy and more effort. When he steps into his throws, he's very accurate. The other bit that's been a problem is trajectory. He doesn't put enough air on the ball so it gets to the spot too fast which leads to an over throw and if you read his transcripts, you'll see that he agrees.
The only games Dalton has had a pocket to step up into and throw was the games Robinson started. Faine was injuried and was average at best, Cook has ****** donkey Johnson.

That alone could be the difference.
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  #33  
Old 12-29-2012, 01:34 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Not sure what these #'s say. I mean Alex Smith would average out as the 5th best QB in the NFL with these #'s, and he is now 2nd string on his own team. .
Your example however is even less credible as far as adding any perspective to the subject. ASmith's benching is highly questionable and everyone knows that.

Those numbers show that Dalton was unfairly labeled as a dude with a weak arm to begin with. This year, he hasn't had as good of a year with the deep stuff but that happens. Thing is though, he's plenty capable, he's proven that.

I'd have to say the main difference is Jerome being gone too. He's was a long and lanky receiver who could make some plays down the field. Too much of a head case for my liking though. I like the receivers we have when Sanu is healthy. Especially if Gresh ever becomes the type of weapon he has the potential to be.
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  #34  
Old 12-29-2012, 01:36 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

Where a real #2 would help is in pulling some of the blanket coverage off of Green. That was happening with Sanu when he went down. Sanu didn't need blazing speed or such, just the fact that he created separation and CAUGHT THE BALL was enough to force defenses to roll some of the coverage over to him.

And also, yes, the problems with interior pass blocking have meant Andy can't step up because the nose of the pocket is being consistently driven in.
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  #35  
Old 12-29-2012, 01:41 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Where a real #2 would help is in pulling some of the blanket coverage off of Green. That was happening with Sanu when he went down. Sanu didn't need blazing speed or such, just the fact that he created separation and CAUGHT THE BALL was enough to force defenses to roll some of the coverage over to him.

And also, yes, the problems with interior pass blocking have meant Andy can't step up because the nose of the pocket is being consistently driven in.
Sanu might not shake dudes outta their shoes, but he gets where he is supposed to be, presents a reasonably sized target, and most importantly, he goes and gets the football. Dalton can trust him.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:42 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

[quote=OSUfan;2748056]
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I have finally figured it out. Hammer is actually Carson.

Seriously man get off Andy's A. $. $. No two years at the NFL level is not enough to be at Brady or Manning level. His collegiate career has squat to do with it. Manning had a long collegiate career and Andy's are on pace with his for his second season. Just admit you dislike him for no valid reason.
Kind of. He's part of a group of posters here who for whatever reason are anti-Andy. They pop up on every thread about Dalton and start dissing him under the cover of "concerns" or "being objective". Of course, this is also known as "concern trolling". Maybe they hate TCU. Maybe they dislike gingers. Who knows?
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  #37  
Old 12-29-2012, 02:01 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Sanu might not shake dudes outta their shoes, but he gets where he is supposed to be, presents a reasonably sized target, and most importantly, he goes and gets the football. Dalton can trust him.
Jones has been wide open, and Dalton has not had time to get him the ball.

Puting Cook in a Center has destroyed the Chemistry the O line built.

That has hurt Dalton this year.

It has also hurt the development of Jones, because even when he runs good routes, and is wide open, Dalton has not had time to get the ball to Jones.
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  #38  
Old 12-29-2012, 02:21 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Puting Cook in a Center has destroyed the Chemistry the O line built.

That has hurt Dalton this year.

It has also hurt the development of Jones, because even when he runs good routes, and is wide open, Dalton has not had time to get the ball to Jones.
This is getting silly. Cook has played one complete game and half of two others, yet he is the reason for Dalton's problems for the entire season and has stunted the developement of Jones?

Tigger please.
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  #39  
Old 12-29-2012, 10:26 AM
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The only games Dalton has had a pocket to step up into and throw was the games Robinson started. Faine was injuried and was average at best, Cook has ****** donkey Johnson.

That alone could be the difference.
That is simply not true. There were several times during the Steelers game where Dalton could have stepped up and chose not to, instead leaving the pocket or standing still instead of sliding to give him space to step up in. It wasn't until the fourth quarter when he started stepping through the pocket and making some great throws (pass to Gresham on 3rd down, throw to Hawkins up the seam, throw to Green at the end). Regardless, Dalton has had this issue most of the year, not recently and it's something he'll have to spend some time working on in the offseason if he wants to succeed. His poor footwork is not on the OL.
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Old 12-29-2012, 10:32 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

Why don't they try moving Cook to LG and starting Robinson at C?

The line seemed much better at pass protection when Robinson was starting and BJGE was having 100 yard rushing games. Makes sense to me.
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Old 12-29-2012, 10:38 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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I think these numbers prove that Andy does not have a problem with deep throws.
Yes he does. And the problem isn't arm strength or his WRs. I have been saying all year he throws a lousy deep ball. Many of his longer throws are overthrown. The reason is he throws a relatively flat arc. His deep ball is long enough, but has the incorrect trajectory. He needs to get more air under the ball and let it drop into the Wrs hands.
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Old 12-29-2012, 10:42 AM
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Why don't they try moving Cook to LG and starting Robinson at C?

The line seemed much better at pass protection when Robinson was starting and BJGE was having 100 yard rushing games. Makes sense to me.
Boling has been one of the better guards all season. No idea why he all of a sudden started getting beat, just could be the end of the year and he's finally hit his wall, but I see no reason why they'd move a guy who doesn't play guard to guard to replace a guy who has been great 90% of the season.

Second, the line did look better with Robinson in there but this was mostly against teams that aren't rushing the passer all that well this year (NYG, KC, OAK and SD). And even if those teams do rush the passer well, which they don't this year, their only true threats are from the OLB/DE spots which has nothing to truly do with Robinson's blocking ability. Only Oakland has any threats from the inside and it was Robinson's worst game besides the first Steelers game.

I like Robinson as much as the next guy, but he's an undrafted rookie free agent for a reason and while he has added stability to our offensive line in a time of need, he lacks experience and strength that will be necessary going into the playoffs. I think he gets a shot at unseating Cook next year in OTAs/training camp but I have a hard time seeing the coaches not going with the experience veteran in the biggest games of the year for us. I have a hard time seeing any coach going with the rookie, especially at a position like center.
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Old 12-29-2012, 10:44 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Not sure what these #'s say. I mean Alex Smith would average out as the 5th best QB in the NFL with these #'s, and he is now 2nd string on his own team. .
That just shows how much more there is to the QB position ( decision making, defensive reads, play optimization, game management, etc ) and why drafting one by the numbers is often so misleading/heartbreaking.
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Old 12-29-2012, 10:49 AM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Yes he does. And the problem isn't arm strength or his WRs. I have been saying all year he throws a lousy deep ball. Many of his longer throws are overthrown. The reason is he throws a relatively flat arc. His deep ball is long enough, but has the incorrect trajectory. He needs to get more air under the ball and let it drop into the Wrs hands.
He often does this but not consistently. It will come in the natural maturation. Seems to be what many do not understand.
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Old 12-29-2012, 10:54 AM
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He often does this but not consistently. It will come in the natural maturation. Seems to be what many do not understand.
It's something he is clearly working on. I think it was his Wednesday transcripts where he was discussing putting a different arc on the ball. Ultimately, it comes down to trusting his arm and better footwork.
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Old 12-29-2012, 11:22 AM
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bengals Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

[quote=Joelist;2748274]
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Kind of. He's part of a group of posters here who for whatever reason are anti-Andy. They pop up on every thread about Dalton and start dissing him under the cover of "concerns" or "being objective". Of course, this is also known as "concern trolling". Maybe they hate TCU. Maybe they dislike gingers. Who knows?
Perhaps you and OSUfan should tell me and other's who think differently, what's the "proper way" to state our OPINIONS. Also, you seem to be with the "in crowd" so tell us what to say too.
I like Dalton as person but he's a very average QB playing on a highly talented football team. I've been pulling for the Bengals since the early 80's in HS. I want to see a dominating offense again where we crush teams. I don't see that happening with Dalton at QB. I live very close to TCU, went to most of the home games the past 6 years, intensely cheered for Dalton and evaluated his weaknesses.
Without even looking up you're previous posts Joelist, I'm willing to bet you're opinions on player personnel have been proving wrong more so than right.
Starting with Burfict, I'm batting with a 1000 avg on player personnel. During preseason the "in crowd" claimed Skuta was a much better LB than Burfict. Not something to write home about huh?
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:04 PM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Perhaps you and OSUfan should tell me and other's who think differently, what's the "proper way" to state our OPINIONS. Also, you seem to be with the "in crowd" so tell us what to say too.
I like Dalton as person but he's a very average QB playing on a highly talented football team. I've been pulling for the Bengals since the early 80's in HS. I want to see a dominating offense again where we crush teams. I don't see that happening with Dalton at QB. I live very close to TCU, went to most of the home games the past 6 years, intensely cheered for Dalton and evaluated his weaknesses.
Without even looking up you're previous posts Joelist, I'm willing to bet you're opinions on player personnel have been proving wrong more so than right.
Starting with Burfict, I'm batting with a 1000 avg on player personnel. During preseason the "in crowd" claimed Skuta was a much better LB than Burfict. Not something to write home about huh?
Congratulations. You just proved the point - you couldn't even explain why you show up in every thread even tangentially talking about Andy and diss him - without dissing him.

I suggest actually doing research on posters before making judgments about them. My "batting average" is more right than wrong. I called for Sanu right from the start and while he was in there he worked beautifully because what we are missing on offense is a big, sure handed possession receiver. I also wanted Burflict out there and was happy we brought Crocker back. Oh, and you're not batting 1000 - you're wrong about Dalton.

You're also wrong about the overall talent level on offense - it is not that high. We lack speed at RB, have no reliable options at WR other than AJ and our TE drops the ball too often and draws holding calls constantly. We also have spotty interior pass blocking (understandable with the lack of experience at both Guard spots).
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  #48  
Old 12-29-2012, 12:13 PM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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You're also wrong about the overall talent level on offense - it is not that high. We lack speed at RB, have no reliable options at WR other than AJ and our TE drops the ball too often and draws holding calls constantly. We also have spotty interior pass blocking (understandable with the lack of experience at both Guard spots).
Most of the things you listed doesn't suggest we don't have talent, it suggests we're young. Our top 5 WRs have 2 years or less in this league. Gresham is still a 3rd year TE, Charles a rookie. Our interior, as you said, lacks experience because they're both young.

But none of that means they aren't talented. The only thing that we're truly missing in regards to talent is a RB. Possibly a center too. But every other position has talent, just not experience. They will get better.
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:24 PM
fortyyearfan fortyyearfan is offline
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bengals Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Originally Posted by osufan View Post
he often does this but not consistently. It will come in the natural maturation. Seems to be what many do not understand.
no question andy dalton must get alot better with the long ball when he has overthrown it so much, and not enough air under it. If our team is going to continue on he must hit some of those big ones. That is what puts the good teams moving forward.look at all the highlights on nfl. Its always a blazing receiver getting the big bomb to seal the deal.and yes, i do believe a.j. Green has to build more muscle mass with about 10 more pounds to make him tougher.he is kinda frail to me.
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:38 PM
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Default Re: Deep Ball Numbers...featuring Andy Dalton

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Originally Posted by fortyyearfan View Post
no question andy dalton must get alot better with the long ball when he has overthrown it so much, and not enough air under it. If our team is going to continue on he must hit some of those big ones. That is what puts the good teams moving forward.look at all the highlights on nfl. Its always a blazing receiver getting the big bomb to seal the deal.and yes, i do believe a.j. Green has to build more muscle mass with about 10 more pounds to make him tougher.he is kinda frail to me.
And if we could actually block properly inside he would be able to step into his throw and we would be okay.
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