Cincinnati Bengals

Go Back   Cincinnati Bengals Message Boards - Forums > Cincinnati Bengals Football Discussion > The NFL Draft

The NFL Draft Year-round discussion of all aspects of the NFL Draft, including a subforum specifically dedicated to mock drafts.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-14-2013, 02:12 AM
Lolli's Avatar
Lolli Lolli is offline
VIP Gold Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: CTC
Posts: 9,766
Rep Points: 13837
Default Interesting RB Draft

After a discussion about measurables regarding RBs, I did the following. (It can't be this easy can it?)

I took the measurables of the RBs from the combine over the last 5 years and filtered on the following:

Weight 195 or higher
40 Time 4.55 or better (10 and 20 yards splits are probably better, but hard to come by in an easy format)
3 Cone Drill of 7 or better

I then took this list and filtered for the following:

Multi-year starter w/ avg 1000 yds + / year as a starter
Avg 5.0 or better / carry
No major medical red flags (This may not have been very extensive)

I then took this list and determined how far above average a RB was in these 3 categories:

40 yard dash
20 yard shuttles
3 cone drill

Here is what it spit out in order:

Ray Rice
Ben Tate
Jamaal Charles
Kendall Hunter
Donald Brown
Felix Jones
Matt Forte'
Doug Martin

Hunter is the only head scratcher.
__________________

Last edited by Lolli; 01-14-2013 at 10:02 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-14-2013, 02:21 AM
09itsourtime's Avatar
09itsourtime 09itsourtime is offline
VIP Silver Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,493
Rep Points: 1354
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

The REAL question is who fits the bill in this draft?
__________________
Stay Classy Cleveland, Stay Classy
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-14-2013, 09:56 AM
Stewee28's Avatar
Stewee28 Stewee28 is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Cincy Burbs, Ohio
Posts: 702
Rep Points: 1025
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Man....hahaha......you have a lot of time on your hands. You, sir, are committed to finding our Bengals a true RB threat, and for that, I applaud you.

Who are you looking at as far as the RB based on your "equation?" Granted, you wont be able to plug players into your system without their combine numbers, so we may have to revert back to this after the combine. Thats a good list though.

All those backs are similar. Very down hill, phsyical runners who have the speed to break off a long run as well as good hands out of the backfield.

Maybe Lacy? Stefphan Taylor? type backs. I am not really sure though!

Nice research my dude!!!!
__________________

Here Us......ROAR!!!
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:16 AM
goalpost goalpost is offline
VIP Silver Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: cincinnati
Posts: 4,055
Rep Points: 3614
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

By using your average of 5 yards a carry, the following players did not do that last year

Le'Veon Bell...4.7
Stepfan Taylor..4.8
Mike Gillislee..4.7
Jawan Jamison..4.2
Theo Riddick..4.8
Ray Graham...4.7

Last edited by goalpost; 01-14-2013 at 10:19 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:41 AM
Lolli's Avatar
Lolli Lolli is offline
VIP Gold Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: CTC
Posts: 9,766
Rep Points: 13837
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by goalpost View Post
By using your average of 5 yards a carry, the following players did not do that last year

Le'Veon Bell...4.7
Stepfan Taylor..4.8
Mike Gillislee..4.7
Jawan Jamison..4.2
Theo Riddick..4.8
Ray Graham...4.7
Here is a better description of what I did:

Bell was a starter for 2 years, 2,741 Yds is plenty, but averages 4.86 YPC.

Taylor was the starter for 3 years, 3,997 Yds is plenty, and he averaged 5.08 YPC

The 5 Yds / carry was an arbitrary transition point on my part. I can try 4.5, and 4.75 to see what comes out, but so far, I like 5 YPC.

4.55 for the 40 and 7 for 3 cone are the average over the last 5 years of the RBs that chose to participate at the combine.
__________________
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 01-14-2013, 03:14 PM
50yarder 50yarder is offline
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 117
Rep Points: 105
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Where does Robbie Rouse rank
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 01-14-2013, 05:08 PM
pulses pulses is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Southeastern Indiana
Posts: 1,545
Rep Points: 632
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lolli View Post
Here is a better description of what I did:

Bell was a starter for 2 years, 2,741 Yds is plenty, but averages 4.86 YPC.

Taylor was the starter for 3 years, 3,997 Yds is plenty, and he averaged 5.08 YPC

The 5 Yds / carry was an arbitrary transition point on my part. I can try 4.5, and 4.75 to see what comes out, but so far, I like 5 YPC.

4.55 for the 40 and 7 for 3 cone are the average over the last 5 years of the RBs that chose to participate at the combine.

Zac Stacy is going to make the cut for sure! He's going to be next years Alfred Morris.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 01-14-2013, 06:31 PM
coachmcneil71's Avatar
coachmcneil71 coachmcneil71 is online now
VIP Silver Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Punxsutawney
Posts: 2,740
Rep Points: 9982
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lolli View Post
After a discussion about measurables regarding RBs, I did the following. (It can't be this easy can it?)

I took the measurables of the RBs from the combine over the last 5 years and filtered on the following:

Weight 195 or higher
40 Time 4.55 or better (10 and 20 yards splits are probably better, but hard to come by in an easy format)
3 Cone Drill of 7 or better

I then took this list and filtered for the following:

Multi-year starter w/ avg 1000 yds + / year as a starter
Avg 5.0 or better / carry
No major medical red flags (This may not have been very extensive)

I then took this list and determined how far above average a RB was in these 3 categories:

40 yard dash
20 yard shuttles
3 cone drill

Here is what it spit out in order:

Ray Rice
Ben Tate
Jamaal Charles
Kendall Hunter
Donald Brown
Felix Jones
Matt Forte'
Doug Martin

Hunter is the only head scratcher.
The only thing holding back Hunter is Gore.
He is ready to bust out.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 01-14-2013, 08:11 PM
McC's Avatar
McC McC is offline
VIP Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 14,939
Rep Points: 22557
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by pulses View Post
Zac Stacy is going to make the cut for sure! He's going to be next years Alfred Morris.
I like him too and can't understand why he's projected so late. He did play in the SEC.
__________________
www.musicsite.biz/leftyohio

singersongwriterrocknroll
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 01-14-2013, 08:21 PM
bfine32's Avatar
bfine32 bfine32 is online now
MB HOF Inductee
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Radcliff, KY
Posts: 23,417
Rep Points: 43961
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by McC View Post
I like him too and can't understand why he's projected so late. He did play in the SEC.
Yeah, but he only rushed for 100 yards against 1 SEC teams and that was a terrible Aurburn Squad.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 01-14-2013, 08:27 PM
McC's Avatar
McC McC is offline
VIP Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 14,939
Rep Points: 22557
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by bfine32 View Post
Yeah, but he only rushed for 100 yards against 1 SEC teams and that was a terrible Aurburn Squad.
Okay. There ya go. TY.
__________________
www.musicsite.biz/leftyohio

singersongwriterrocknroll
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 01-14-2013, 08:28 PM
pulses pulses is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Southeastern Indiana
Posts: 1,545
Rep Points: 632
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by bfine32 View Post
Yeah, but he only rushed for 100 yards against 1 SEC teams and that was a terrible Aurburn Squad.
yeah but he still put up 83 and 86 against Ga and Fla which is pretty good
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 01-14-2013, 08:35 PM
McC's Avatar
McC McC is offline
VIP Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 14,939
Rep Points: 22557
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by bfine32 View Post
Yeah, but he only rushed for 100 yards against 1 SEC teams and that was a terrible Aurburn Squad.
If he was Vandy's only real threat, there might be extenuating circumstances. I don't know if this is true, just putting it out there.
__________________
www.musicsite.biz/leftyohio

singersongwriterrocknroll
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:14 PM
D's Nuts and Bolts's Avatar
D's Nuts and Bolts D's Nuts and Bolts is online now
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Manhattan, KS
Posts: 2,153
Rep Points: 3073
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by pulses View Post
Zac Stacy is going to make the cut for sure! He's going to be next years Alfred Morris.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bfine32 View Post
Yeah, but he only rushed for 100 yards against 1 SEC teams and that was a terrible Aurburn Squad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by McC View Post
Okay. There ya go. TY.
Hate to disagree with you again Pulses but the only way I see Stacy being the next Alfred Morris is if he goes to WAS and plays for Shanahan.

Against quality team Stacy's production fell. He droped 2 yards per rush against ranked teams and failed to reach 4.0 yards per rush in 5 games. Part of this could be due to his OLine I guess. He also only caught 10 passes this year.

My late round guy is Kerwynn Williams from Utah State, he has been very productive and is a KR as well. Level of comp comes into play with him as well.

Both will be on display during the Shrine Game.

Last edited by D's Nuts and Bolts; 01-14-2013 at 10:17 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:33 PM
pulses pulses is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Southeastern Indiana
Posts: 1,545
Rep Points: 632
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by D's Nuts and Bolts View Post
Hate to disagree with you again Pulses but the only way I see Stacy being the next Alfred Morris is if he goes to WAS and plays for Shanahan.

Against quality team Stacy's production fell. He droped 2 yards per rush against ranked teams and failed to reach 4.0 yards per rush in 5 games. Part of this could be due to his OLine I guess. He also only caught 10 passes this year.

My late round guy is Kerwynn Williams from Utah State, he has been very productive and is a KR as well. Level of comp comes into play with him as well.

Both will be on display during the Shrine Game.
disagree all u want but i'm right IMO. Stacy played well with what he had to work with which wasnt that damn much, so with him playing on a better team he's gonna be able to show off his talents even more. I like Kerwynn Williams as much as the next guy but Stacy is a little better.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:50 PM
t3r3e3 t3r3e3 is offline
VIP Silver Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,406
Rep Points: 1386
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by coachmcneil71 View Post
The only thing holding back Hunter is Gore.
He is ready to bust out.
I second this. Hunter has talent, just not opportunity. If Gore gets hurt next year and misses 4-6 games, he'll get Wally Pipped by a combination of Hunter and James.
__________________
“The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.”
― Willie Nelson

It's time for Raggedy Andy to go...
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:51 PM
t3r3e3 t3r3e3 is offline
VIP Silver Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,406
Rep Points: 1386
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by pulses View Post
disagree all u want but i'm right IMO. Stacy played well with what he had to work with which wasnt that damn much, so with him playing on a better team he's gonna be able to show off his talents even more. I like Kerwynn Williams as much as the next guy but Stacy is a little better.
I also like Stacy. He's solid in all aspects, and a better all-around back than anyone on Cincy's roster. Probably get him with a 3rd-5th, depending on how the RB's go in the Draft.
__________________
“The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.”
― Willie Nelson

It's time for Raggedy Andy to go...
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:52 PM
pulses pulses is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Southeastern Indiana
Posts: 1,545
Rep Points: 632
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by t3r3e3 View Post
I also like Stacy. He's solid in all aspects, and a better all-around back than anyone on Cincy's roster. Probably get him with a 3rd-5th, depending on how the RB's go in the Draft.

He's a 7th round grade as of now.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:55 PM
t3r3e3 t3r3e3 is offline
VIP Silver Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,406
Rep Points: 1386
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by bfine32 View Post
Yeah, but he only rushed for 100 yards against 1 SEC teams and that was a terrible Aurburn Squad.
True. Had 3 in 2011. Overall stats were decent. In several of the 2012 games, he had good YPC's, but only 10 carries or so. We'll have to wait and see how the Shrine game and Combine pan out.
__________________
“The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.”
― Willie Nelson

It's time for Raggedy Andy to go...
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 01-14-2013, 10:57 PM
t3r3e3 t3r3e3 is offline
VIP Silver Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,406
Rep Points: 1386
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by pulses View Post
He's a 7th round grade as of now.
Cool, maybe a 5th-6th then. I figure he'll be ranked a bit higher once the Shrine/Combine are through. Maybe not, though. Could always pair him with Michael Dyer in the Draft for two late round value picks.
__________________
“The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.”
― Willie Nelson

It's time for Raggedy Andy to go...
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 01-14-2013, 11:21 PM
D's Nuts and Bolts's Avatar
D's Nuts and Bolts D's Nuts and Bolts is online now
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Manhattan, KS
Posts: 2,153
Rep Points: 3073
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by pulses View Post
disagree all u want but i'm right IMO. Stacy played well with what he had to work with which wasnt that damn much, so with him playing on a better team he's gonna be able to show off his talents even more. I like Kerwynn Williams as much as the next guy but Stacy is a little better.
IMO Cin doesn't need another banger. My fear is a guy like Stacy won't make much impact because he doesn't return kicks, have a lot of experience catching the ball, and isn't a change of pace guy. Much like Boom he would have to wait for an injury.

Stacy and Williams are two totally different players. I don't know how you can really compare the two and say one is better then the other.

On another note, what is everyones thoughts on Rex Burkhead as a possible Lenord replacement? He just seems like a football player and can do several things. Suffered through some injuries this year but IDK what do you guys think.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 01-14-2013, 11:53 PM
pulses pulses is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Southeastern Indiana
Posts: 1,545
Rep Points: 632
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by D's Nuts and Bolts View Post
IMO Cin doesn't need another banger. My fear is a guy like Stacy won't make much impact because he doesn't return kicks, have a lot of experience catching the ball, and isn't a change of pace guy. Much like Boom he would have to wait for an injury.

Stacy and Williams are two totally different players. I don't know how you can really compare the two and say one is better then the other.

On another note, what is everyones thoughts on Rex Burkhead as a possible Lenord replacement? He just seems like a football player and can do several things. Suffered through some injuries this year but IDK what do you guys think.
Stacy's speed is almost as good as williams so I have no idea what you're trying to compare.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 02-25-2013, 01:12 AM
Lolli's Avatar
Lolli Lolli is offline
VIP Gold Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: CTC
Posts: 9,766
Rep Points: 13837
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lolli View Post
After a discussion about measurables regarding RBs, I did the following. (It can't be this easy can it?)

I took the measurables of the RBs from the combine over the last 5 years and filtered on the following:

Weight 195 or higher
40 Time 4.55 or better (10 and 20 yards splits are probably better, but hard to come by in an easy format)
3 Cone Drill of 7 or better

I then took this list and filtered for the following:

Multi-year starter w/ avg 1000 yds + / year as a starter
Avg 5.0 or better / carry
No major medical red flags (This may not have been very extensive)

I then took this list and determined how far above average a RB was in these 3 categories:

40 yard dash
20 yard shuttles
3 cone drill

Here is what it spit out in order:

Ray Rice
Ben Tate
Jamaal Charles
Kendall Hunter
Donald Brown
Felix Jones
Matt Forte'
Doug Martin

Hunter is the only head scratcher.
Well, after reviewing the RB class at the combine, this is how it shakes out if I include the previously mentioned productivity weed out point (even then I did not chase down medical red flags yet):

185 Zac Stacy RB 5'8" 216 Vanderbilt
62 Giovani Bernard * RB 5'8" 202 North Carolina
142 Kenjon Barner RB 5'9" 196 Oregon
100 Johnathan Franklin RB 5'10" 205 UCLA

If I ignore the production quota, this is who the model suggests in this draft (Christine Michael actually outscored Ray Rice):

112 Christine Michael RB 5'10" 220 Texas A&M
260 Michael Ford RB 5'10" 215 LSU
185 Zac Stacy RB 5'8" 216 Vanderbilt
62 Giovani Bernard * RB 5'8" 202 North Carolina
183 Knile Davis * RB 5'10" 227 Arkansas
142 Kenjon Barner RB 5'9" 196 Oregon
100 Johnathan Franklin RB 5'10" 205 UCLA

***The numbers in front of their name represent the average draft projection from NFL.com, ESPN and CBS***

Note: while Le'Veon Bell did not meet the minimum 40 weed out point, his short area quickness is crazy for his size.

Despite the fact that all of the above players are technically faster than average, Davis and maybe Franklin are the only ones you might actually call change of pass backs (that would be a funny title for a 227 lb dude).

Zac Stacy is my new dark horse for the 2013 season. Michael looks like the winner though.
__________________
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 02-25-2013, 03:57 AM
savagehenry54's Avatar
savagehenry54 savagehenry54 is offline
MB HOF Inductee
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Columbus
Posts: 14,720
Rep Points: 38280
Default Re: Interesting RB Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lolli View Post
Well, after reviewing the RB class at the combine, this is how it shakes out if I include the previously mentioned productivity weed out point (even then I did not chase down medical red flags yet):

185 Zac Stacy RB 5'8" 216 Vanderbilt
62 Giovani Bernard * RB 5'8" 202 North Carolina
142 Kenjon Barner RB 5'9" 196 Oregon
100 Johnathan Franklin RB 5'10" 205 UCLA

If I ignore the production quota, this is who the model suggests in this draft (Christine Michael actually outscored Ray Rice):

112 Christine Michael RB 5'10" 220 Texas A&M
260 Michael Ford RB 5'10" 215 LSU
185 Zac Stacy RB 5'8" 216 Vanderbilt
62 Giovani Bernard * RB 5'8" 202 North Carolina
183 Knile Davis * RB 5'10" 227 Arkansas
142 Kenjon Barner RB 5'9" 196 Oregon
100 Johnathan Franklin RB 5'10" 205 UCLA

***The numbers in front of their name represent the average draft projection from NFL.com, ESPN and CBS***

Note: while Le'Veon Bell did not meet the minimum 40 weed out point, his short area quickness is crazy for his size.

Despite the fact that all of the above players are technically faster than average, Davis and maybe Franklin are the only ones you might actually call change of pass backs (that would be a funny title for a 227 lb dude).

Zac Stacy is my new dark horse for the 2013 season. Michael looks like the winner though.
Dude, tell me how Lacy's pro day numbers shake out in your formula after the numbers from that come out please and thank you.
__________________
When the opponent is focused and determined, as they tend to be in the big games, Lewis and Dalton melt and disintegrate.... Entirely out of their element.
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 02-25-2013, 05:31 AM
OSUfan's Avatar
OSUfan OSUfan is offline
VIP Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: vandalia, ohio
Posts: 23,013
Rep Points: 25905
bengals Re: Interesting RB Draft

Christine Michael should be our guy. A great combination of size and speed. Played the entire 2012 season and showed no effect from previous injuries.
__________________
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:06 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 1999-2012 Cincinnati Bengals. All rights reserved. Do not duplicate in any form without permission of the Cincinnati Bengals.