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Old 01-26-2013, 01:50 PM
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Default There is no consensus

Are players like cars or phones? One guy likes Hondas and the next guy like Fords.

One guy likes Lacy and the next guy like Bernard, and so on. And go down the list of positions and it's the same.

Is there anyone we might draft in any round who might have a consensus opinion?

ANYONE?

Also, when you have a favorite this or that, is it based on how he would fit the Bengals specifically or just liking a guy's game in general? Probably both, I guess.

But I just can't get over the differences in opinion. While it makes for great conversation, it makes my heard spin when I try to figure out who I prefer.

Every argument you make for a guy has a counter argument. Every draft guru's opinion about anyone is likely to have an exact opinion from some other expert, self-appointed or otherwise. How do you know who to believe? Do you go with someone's opinion you trust?

I just want to know how you guys reach your conclusions because I find the whole process maddening...in a good way, but still...

It's really just an educated high stakes guessing game when you get right down to it. How much does gut feeling play into it, if at all?
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Old 01-26-2013, 01:53 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

This draft is incredibly hard to have a consensus on for several reasons.

1. We are drafting later again, more options for that first pick. This happened when we took Gresham. Lot's of disagreement up until the pick was announced.

2. This draft is incredibly deep but lacking headlining talent long run. Lot's of good and solid players but where we pick at 21, the talent hasn't really separated itself from the talent we could take at 37. Most mocks you could switch who we take at 21 and 37 and most wouldn't mind it or see much variation.
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Old 01-26-2013, 01:54 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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Originally Posted by berserkerone88 View Post
This draft is incredibly hard to have a consensus on for several reasons.

1. We are drafting later again, more options for that first pick. This happened when we took Gresham. Lot's of disagreement up until the pick was announced.

2. This draft is incredibly deep but lacking headlining talent long run. Lot's of good and solid players but where we pick at 21, the talent hasn't really separated itself from the talent we could take at 37. Most mocks you could switch who we take at 21 and 37 and most wouldn't mind it or see much variation.
How do you pick your favorites?
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Old 01-26-2013, 01:58 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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How do you pick your favorites?
Well you have to decide what you perceive as the biggest need.
We are in a position where there is no one position that could be "biggest need."
LB, S, DE, WR....all needs but one not really more so than the rest.

From there, personal preference on the qualities you like in a player from what you read about or what you gain from watching them play
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:01 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

Also this type of stuff doesn't hurt when picking a favorite:
Khaseem Greene's Farewell Letter to Rutgers Fans
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:06 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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Also this type of stuff doesn't hurt when picking a favorite:
Khaseem Greene's Farewell Letter to Rutgers Fans
That's very impressive on may levels. Good payer and good citizen. I like that combo a lot.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:08 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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That's very impressive on may levels. Good payer and good citizen. I like that combo a lot.
Doesn't hurt he plays a position we need dearly.
He is probably the best pure cover LB in this draft.

From what I have heard from Senior Bowl practices, he needs to get a stronger upper body vs the run but the coverage skills are just top notch.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:11 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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Doesn't hurt he plays a position we need dearly.
He is probably the best pure cover LB in this draft.

From what I have heard from Senior Bowl practices, he needs to get a stronger upper body vs the run but the coverage skills are just top notch.
I know he ****** me off when the Bearcats played Rutgers. If he can cover TE's, he'd be a god to me.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:13 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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It's really just an educated high stakes guessing game when you get right down to it. How much does gut feeling play into it, if at all?
The NFL draft is much more of a guessing game than any of the experts want to admit. even NFL teams, who have MUCH more information than any of us miss on a lot of draft picks. every year there are several early round busts and several late round gems.

Part of it is due to problems in the evaluation process and part of it is due to the fact that some players simply change from their college careers to the NFL. Some guys decide to buck down and work harder while some guys get softer once they get a fat check. So even if all the indicators point to a bust or a star that player could change after he is drafted.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:13 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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I know he ****** me off when the Bearcats played Rutgers. If he can cover TE's, he'd be a god to me.
He can do that.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:17 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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Originally Posted by fredtoast View Post
The NFL draft is much more of a guessing game than any of the experts want to admit. even NFL teams, who have MUCH more information than any of us miss on a lot of draft picks. every year there are several early round busts and several late round gems.

Part of it is due to problems in the evaluation process and part of it is due to the fact that some players simply change from their college careers to the NFL. Some guys decide to buck down and work harder while some guys get softer once they get a fat check. So even if all the indicators point to a bust or a star that player could change after he is drafted.
All excellent points. How do you pick your favorites and how much does gut feeling play into it?
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:34 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

As for Greene, watch this cut up of his game vs Syracuse.
Greene vs Cuse

A little before 2 minutes in, he gets a flag for a late hit.
After that he goes into beast mode and takes the game over.
3 forced fumbles.
2 sacks.
1 Interception.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:36 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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Originally Posted by berserkerone88 View Post
As for Greene, watch this cut up of his game vs Syracuse.
Greene vs Cuse

A little before 2 minutes in, he gets a flag for a late hit.
After that he goes into beast mode and takes the game over.
3 forced fumbles.
2 sacks.
1 Interception.
So he ****** off a lot of Syracuse fans too.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:36 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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Originally Posted by McC View Post
All excellent points. How do you pick your favorites and how much does gut feeling play into it?
I am usually a little biased toward SEC players becuse I am big SEC fan (Tennessee) and watch a lot of their games.

As the draft gets closer I usually look at several different scouting sites and try to get a consensus as to waht range players are going to get drafted.

There are alwasy a few exeptions but I usually rank players by position. First round is mainly for QBs, LTs, CBs, and DEs. And no matter how much I hear about drafting the "best player available" I always give a lot of weight to our needs.

When looking at workout numbers I have specific favorites for different positions. For example with RBs I put more weight in the ten yard split time instead of the time for the full forty yard dash.......With WRs it is the opposite. The ten yard split is meaningless so I look more at the top speed than the time for the full forty. Unfortunately they don't show the top speed for all of them like they used to do........I try not to get too excited about a plyer who has an amazing performance in one event, but I do pay more attention to guys who are elite all across the board.....3-cone drill and short shuttle are very important for every position.

As for character problems I weigh those on an individual basis. I will usually give a pass to a guy who has only one incedent in his past, but guys who have screwed up multiple times get dropped pretty far down my list. I also don't worry too much about guys who have failed a test for weed or who have had just one alcohol related problem.

Last edited by fredtoast; 01-26-2013 at 02:39 PM.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:37 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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Originally Posted by fredtoast View Post
I am usually a little biased toward SEC players becuse I am big SEC fan (Tennessee) and watch a lot of their games.

As the draft gets closer I usually look at several different scouting sites and try to get a consensus as to waht range players are going to get drafted.

There are alwasy a few exeptions but I usually rank players by position. First round is mainly for QBs, LTs, CBs, and DEs. And no matter how much I hear about drafting the "best player available" I always give a lot of weight to our needs.

When looking at workout numbers I have specific favorites for different positions. For example with RBs I put more weight in the ten yard split time instead of the time for the full forty yard dash.......With WRs it is the opposite. The ten yard split is meaningless so I look more at the top speed than the time for the full forty. Unfortunately they don't show the top speed for all of them like they used to do........I try not to get too excited about a plyer who has an amazing performance in one event, but I do pay more attention to guys who are elite all across the board.....3-cone drill and short shuttle are very important for every position.

As for character problems I weigh those on an individual basis. I will usually give a pass to a guy who has only one event in his past, but guys who have screwed up multiple times get dropped pretty far down my list. I also don't worry too much about guys who have failed a test for weed or who have had just one alcohol related problem.
Great post. A thought out plan. The SEC is never a bad place to start.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:54 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

I think the reason that you see so many debates is because of the players in question.

None of the top running backs are the complete package. Some are speed guys that can catch the ball, but aren't great running between the tackles. Others are great pounders, but don't project well to the passing game.

I would guess if you had a poll and asked who the best player at each position in the draft is, most of the positions would have a strong consensus.

As far as having a consensus on WHO to pick, that's a little bigger issue. There is a camp on the board that feels we need a DE, others that think we need a WR. The major problem is that there doesn't seem to be a good group of first round talent at the positions we need:

OLB, S, WR, RB

Sure, there are good prospects, but most of them project as 1st/2nd round types - hence the debate.
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Old 01-28-2013, 01:28 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

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Originally Posted by berserkerone88 View Post
Also this type of stuff doesn't hurt when picking a favorite:
Khaseem Greene's Farewell Letter to Rutgers Fans
Great find. I really hope this guy is in stripes next year.

On a side note if I was an agent I'd advise every one of my clients to write a letter like this. If they were too lazy I'd write it for them. This can't help but push someone's draft stock way up.
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Old 01-28-2013, 01:34 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

Quote:
Originally Posted by McC View Post
Are players like cars or phones? One guy likes Hondas and the next guy like Fords.

One guy likes Lacy and the next guy like Bernard, and so on. And go down the list of positions and it's the same.

Is there anyone we might draft in any round who might have a consensus opinion?

ANYONE?

Also, when you have a favorite this or that, is it based on how he would fit the Bengals specifically or just liking a guy's game in general? Probably both, I guess.

But I just can't get over the differences in opinion. While it makes for great conversation, it makes my heard spin when I try to figure out who I prefer.

Every argument you make for a guy has a counter argument. Every draft guru's opinion about anyone is likely to have an exact opinion from some other expert, self-appointed or otherwise. How do you know who to believe? Do you go with someone's opinion you trust?

I just want to know how you guys reach your conclusions because I find the whole process maddening...in a good way, but still...

It's really just an educated high stakes guessing game when you get right down to it. How much does gut feeling play into it, if at all?
Its always like this, it makes it worse that we have such a late pick. Even when we held the 4th overall pick and aj green was sitting there people STILL argued and had way different opinions. Some people wanted julio jones over green for whatever reason, some people wanted patrick peteson over green as well.
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Old 01-28-2013, 01:37 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

I am sure there is at least on consensus, just not this year. It would be for next year, that kid Clowney is one that a lot of us would take in a heartbeat. However he looks to be out of our reach unless we have a top 3 pick.
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Old 01-28-2013, 02:19 PM
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Default Re: There is no consensus

Normally once you get past the top 5 guys in a draft there normally isn't a consensus pick.
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